FCF’s 2017 Upgrade Flight Plan

What will, might, and won’t happen in the premium travel Upgrade World on “Flight 2017”.

News flash: think flash! I think 2017 will be a vintage year for the premium traveler, especially for those who understand Flash EasyUp fares and Flash Award Availability. Those with a resolution to extend the deals and be flexible will find great opportunities up front.

As always, loyalty-free agents will be the big winners, while elite-status travelers (those married to one carrier) will be losers—this year more so than ever.

International Business Class
EasyUp Fare Predictions

To Europe: Fares from the U.S. have leveled off over the last six months, meaning major airlines will offer fewer Flash EasyUp fares ($1,100 to $1,900). It seems airlines have figured out how to more confidently sell Business Class at prices that are a good deal, while still making a profit. Those $1,100 deals will become increasingly rare—although will still surface—but 150-day advance-purchase fares will continue to be offered at $2,000 to $2,800 (the normal price is usually double or triple that). The airlines are now focused on discounting most for those able to book far in advance. Not necessarily new, just much farther in advance than the traditional 90-day advance-purchase requirement.

Also on the up-side to Europe are new Business Class fares from the West Coast. It seems like only yesterday that the difference between East and West Coast fares was $1,500 to $4,000; nowadays an East Coast departure can even cost more than one from a West Coast departure city to the same destination!

What does this all mean?

It means that airlines are closing the fare gaps between different regions. That’s why we’ve seen such large fare decreases (up to 52%) to destinations including India, Nairobi, New Zealand, and Tel Aviv, for example, that have long cost $6,000+. I expect to see more of this in 2017.

How to Work Business Class Fares to Europe in 2017:
FCF’s Crystal Ball & Recommendations

Stay Alert: Airfares change all the time, both prices and restrictions. Airlines will continue to favor selling seats on certain routes through flash sales rather than giving them away to loyalty program members. Keep an eye on FCF Alerts, which are increasingly vital, and you’ll be light-years ahead of the pack.

Check Seasonal Fares: Deals, such as the current spring offerings (East Coast to Europe and West Coast to Europe), will be scarcer than in past years, so lock in fares like this when they come up. Rely on FCF Alerts to stay in touch.

Knowing How to Extend the “Ticketing Deadline” Is Often Key: The best fares don’t last long, often a few days or hours—so being ready to pull the trigger can mean getting a $1,200-ish fare round-trip as opposed to paying $3,200. If you’re not 100% ready to book, this might require holding multiple reservations, which is more than okay, while you figure out your final plans, destination(s), and dates.

If Possible, Avoid Destination Lock-In: Most people I know have more than one destination remaining on their bucket list. Unless money is no object, consider grabbing an amazingly low fare from your nearest gateway to a city close to your bucket-list destination, and buy separate tickets to the gateway or the destination—or better yet, spend a day or three in the low-fare city, if it’s a cool destination. I just did this last week with Vienna, which was great, on my way to Budapest. Was great visiting a top-shelf city, for a second time, on my way to a new destination, for the first.

Forget About Mileage-Award Lock-In: When Business Class is little more than coach or when First is ridiculously low, pay cash and save miles for expensive trips to exotic destinations.

When All Else Fails, Consider Booking Via Canada for Long Hauls: It can be a great deal, as evidenced by recent fare promotions from Canada to Asia, Australia, and Europe. Consider breaking up your trip in Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver—three great cities if you haven’t been—perhaps one city on the outbound and one on the return if you’re into checking things off the list, with bonuses baked in.

Get to know Lesser-Known Airlines: Look for airlines such as Airberlin and Scandinavian to offer fare deals when other major airlines do not, especially if you can earn miles in a partner mileage program, which on these two you can (Oneworld members on the former, Star Alliance members on the latter).

Leveraging the Above Mindset—
The World Over

To Asia: Look for the lowest fare deals (starting at $1,800) from Canada to Shanghai and Beijing. U.S. departures will still run $3,000+. Be flexible and consider buying separate tickets to the Canadian gateway or LAX, where most the deals originate.

To South Africa: Best deals—$3,500+—will be to Cape Town and Johannesburg—fares that, until recently, easily cost double that.

To East Africa (Safari Country): Nairobi is where the fare action is going to be, starting from $2,500.

To the South Pacific: It will still be a high-priced destination year-round, but look for flash sale promotions to Auckland. Even Australia will see more deals and lower fares thanks to Business Class competition, unless American pulls out after recent regulatory issues.

International First Class EasyUp Fare Predictions

To Europe: For most of 2017, the Continent will still have the world’s lowest, long-haul First Class fares from the U.S.—as low as $2,900. This could change some as we near year’s end, as United is pulling its First Class cabin, reducing the incentive for Lufthansa and SWISS to discount. American is doing the same thing, thus reducing the motivation for British Airways to discount. Air France hates to discount First Class, and it doesn’t have to worry about matching its partner Delta, which has already eliminated the cabin. So, 2017 could see some turbulence, although FCF expects airlines to experiment with new ways to sell excess inventory—and rest assured we will spot those trends for you.

Asia, Africa, South Pacific and South America: First Class fare deals will be few and far between, so these destinations will offer a great return on free and upgrade award travel. The deal here is to buy miles and points at a discount if you don’t have them. You can often get them for half off, as you can see here, here, here, and here.

Domestic Premium Fare Predictions

First Class and Business Class fares will stay low because airlines want to sell seats—especially on competitive routes—rather than give them away to elites. Coach fares will not fall; in fact, the various fees airlines charge for better economy seats, checking bags, and early boarding now come to so much that the difference between coach and First/Business is at an all-time low.  

No Change for 2017

Lucrative loyalty-currency deals—buy-miles promotions and credit card point transfer promotions—will continue to be plentiful and will likely expand. Concentrate on Alaska, American, LifeMiles (Avianca), and United, which have consistently offered bonuses and discounts this year.

Elite Status: Game Over

Elite Upgrade Roulette: Forget it, except on short-haul routes or unless you’re top-tier. I know that I sound like a broken record—I’ve been saying this for years—but the writing is on the wall now in capital letters: Airlines are cutting and selling loyalty program benefits to anyone willing to pay for them, while at the same time also cutting benefits and making it harder to earn elite status. You know this by now. In 2017 you’ll have to give more or give up more.

In fact, airlines are getting so good at selling First Class seats that the biggest benefit of elite status—complimentary elite upgrades—are being sold right out from under you. So remember, it is often better to buy an advance-purchase First Class ticket at a deep discount. Plus, do the math and you’ll see that the price of First Class is often close to that of a free upgrade. Don’t let the promise of elite status be your driver in 2017.

How You’ll “Give up more”: Hawaii and transcon routes are those on which elite upgrades matter most, but they’re disappearing. Delta and United no longer offer them on many long-haul routes to Hawaii, and United, for departure on or after March 1, will kill them from Chicago and Denver. Next on the chopping block will be West Coast-Hawaii routes. American is the only airline that still allows transcon and Hawaii elite upgrades on all routes, but it’s only a matter of time before that changes.

How You’ll “Give more”: By having to spend more to qualify for elite status. American has added Elite Qualifying Dollars (EQDs) to the hurdles. In 2017 it will take $3,000 spent on tickets just to get entry level status. Delta and United already have a similar requirement.

You’ll also have to pay more for the privilege of upgrading. Delta’s lowest economy fares, Basic Economy, do not allow an elite upgrade. Delta forces you to buy a more expensive economy fare just so you can play elite upgrade roulette. Ridiculous! Look for American and United to institute stripped-elite-upgrade economy fares in 2017.

Mileage Award Availability

Mileage-award availability on the three major U.S. carriers will continue to behave like flash fare sales. Premium award space is going to get tighter because the airlines are getting more creative at selling premium seats, and because they prefer cash to mileage redemptions. And the public outcry is minimal. That said, an abundance of award seats will surface, intermittently, just like flash fare sales, so the prize goes to the attentive. Good news here.

International airlines will have good award availability—look to them early in your search. The major drawback is the high taxes imposed (on British Airways and Lufthansa in particular). However international carriers often have Business Class award space, and many also retain a First Class cabin, an endangered species in the U.S.

Be flexible, meaning fly when and to where there is availability on free tickets, even if you have to purchase separate short-hops to your final destination. Watch FCF award availability calendars under the heading “Sweet Redeems.” They detail the routes with lucrative mileage availability. Also consider booking a different airline for each leg of the itinerary. Search one-way award availability first, and from that, paste together your round-trip ticket.

Finally, forget destination ‘lock-In’. Consider grabbing mileage award space to the nearest destination and buying separate tickets from there. Also see FCF’s report on carriers that will freeze a mileage award seat, which gives you time to survey the field and make the best decision.

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Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never thought upon? Yes—if they’re not delivering premium class seating at substantial discounts. Or maybe they are and you just haven’t spotted them. As always, let us know how we can do an even better job of that in 2017.

In the meantime, Happy New Year from Team FCF.