Flash premium fares to Europe drop like it’s 2012 all over again, for travel September through December 2020, and First Class through May 2021.

Are you familiar with the ocean current called the North Atlantic Drift?

It starts off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada, and makes its way across the Atlantic to northwestern Europe. It’s a northerly offshoot of the better known Gulf Stream. This relatively warm current makes European temperatures warmer than places in the same latitude back here in North America. You’re welcome, Europe.

But right now, there’s another kind of North Atlantic drift in operation, about 35,000 feet above sea level.

It’s a drift in premium airfares across the pond, and it’s having quite a turbulent effect on the travel atmosphere.

Normally, there are two forces at play affecting fare volatility: excess premium class inventory and ferocious competition among airlines across the world’s busiest ocean.

But now we are seeing a third force come into play due to covid. These new fares are essentially Covid Tactical Fares, aimed at luring people back into the skies for travel in the fall and winter 2020.

In effect, the airlines are testing the waters. It’s an experiment to see what they can charge within, and following, the roiling sea of covid.

As the world opens up again, airlines are throwing caution to the wind in terms of fare-setting. It’s not a return to normal, it’s a search for a new normal (apologies if you’re sick of that term), and airlines are getting creative about testing new fares, often changing their fares on a day-to-day basis.

That means opportunity is knocking for the savvy premium traveler, and who better to partner with you on that journey than FCF? We see this as the first phase of a covid fare revolution.

So let’s cruise with the current and have some fare fun.

Party Like It’s 2012

The last time premium fares underwent a major fare revolution like this was in 2012. Back then airlines were hawking premium cabin seats for as high a price as possible to Europe—upwards of $3,000 to $4,000, and even $5,000. But wouldn’t you know it, too many seats went unsold. In response airlines moved towards filling all their premium cabins at lower fares to generate more revenue versus having only a few flyers paying higher fares. Delta kicked it off with astounding $1,200 Business Class fares and their competitors followed suit.

Now there’s a different reason for a flash fare frenzy: the covid crisis. To fill empty seats, airlines are asking themselves: How much is too low? What is too expensive? What’s the traveler mindset right now? What travel window restrictions, if any, should the fares have?

Like a mad scientist experimenting down in the basement lab, fares are all over the place. But just like 2012, one ingredient remains: The best fares you’ll find don’t last long. They’re constantly drifting in and out so you need to yank down the power lever when they’re low and yell, “It’s time!”

The First Sign of New Fare Experimentation

FCF came across this fare testing last month (May 27) when Star Alliance, Lufthansa and United, started testing new non-stop Business Class flights to Austria, Belgium, Germany, and Switzerland, starting at around $2,100 ($2,000 with IAP discount) for travel September to December 2020. Compare that to the regular fare of $3,191 (May 26), and you’re looking at a savings of $1,098 (34%). Back then, FCF announced that the new normal for deeply discounted fares will often only be on a flash-sale basis.

Testing Times: June 2020 FARE Examples

Here are some highlights before airlines started testing new fares, and after, for travel September through December 2020 in Business Class. FCF posted the first fare alert on June 13 with fares to Amsterdam starting at $1,684 (new lower fares stayed around for about nine days, and then on June 23 they were gone). Keep in mind that this is a time of year that has never seen low fares in the past unless you traveled over the holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas).

That North Atlantic Drift sure dipped to low latitudes in June. Feel that warm water.

Previous Fare Training to Europe

Over the years, the airlines have trained Europe-bound travelers to look for “seasonal Business Class fares” for spring, summer, Thanksgiving, and Christmas travel, with fares reduced at those times. Airlines call them tactical fares, and we recently did a special report mapping out how you can reel in deeply discounted published fares if you know where to fish. The rest of the year, most Business Class fares to Europe cost between $3,300 and $5,500, forcing aggressive value seekers to rely on mileage programs and other ticketing strategies to find value.

WHAT’S AHEAD?

Expect extreme fare volatility due to the covid crisis. Airlines are clearly testing their fares to see what price people are willing to pay for premium tickets. This means that premium fare deals will often be on a flash-sale basis, which will not last long. They’ll be here one day and gone the next, so this is the time to be an opportunity traveler. Make yourself a generous bucket list, book those low fares that the airlines are testing before they’re gone, and hit all your destinations. Be ready to strike.

Other regions of the world beyond Europe will likely see similar flash-sale deals starting to occur.

Another Perspective:
Low-Cost Upgrades from Premium Economy (PE)

Below are a few recent examples of the low upgrade cost from PE to Business Class when airlines offer flash-sale deals.

On June 16: You could book San Francisco non-stop in Business Class to Paris on United for just $1,853 for travel September through December. Premium Economy during the same time window was $1,289. So that’s a mere $282 more each way, or $25 per flight hour to upgrade.

On June 15: You could book Newark non-stop in Business Class from Newark to Zurich on United for just $1,790 for travel September through December. Premium Economy during the same time window was $1,257. That’s just $266 more each way, or $31 per flight hour to upgrade.

Notice that fares from the East Coast and West Coast are about the same. More about that new trend here.

First Class Currents

British Airways and American Airlines offer some discounted First Class routes for travel September through May 2021. Fares start as low as $3,246 from New York to Milan. If you add the 10% discount for the British Airways Visa Card (current promo code; CHASEBA10), the fare drops to $2,921.

When Special Fares Strike:
Airlines That Allow You to Lock in an Amazing Fare

These flash fares can change any time, so look at locking in a deal and thinking of the lock-in cost as insurance. It gives you time before you actually buy your ticket. You can hold three tickets on British Airways for 72 hours for just $30. On United, the lock costs as little as $6.99 per reservation for three days. British Airways and Lufthansa will even refund the fee if you buy the ticket.

The Risk of Booking Tickets Now:
FCF’s Summary of Cash Ticket Cancellation and Change Policies

Many airlines have new “change fee waiver” policies in place for non-refundable tickets due to the virus. Policies vary by airline, but in general, the policy waives change fees if you decide not to travel. There’s no cash refund available on non-refundable tickets, but you can apply the value of your unused ticket towards future travel. See FCF’s risk-of-booking widget here for airline policies.

Conclusion

How low will the fares go? Nobody can tell. I mean, who would have thought a few months ago that a virus would bring the world as we know it to a halt?

Could we see fares at similar levels as they were back in 2012, when Delta’s New York-Dublin route cost $1,222? Let’s hope so.

If nothing else, remember this: Go with the current, not against it, and you can save extraordinary amounts of money when new covid era flash fares surface.