FCF’s State of the Transatlantic Business Class Fare Union, Observations

There’s good news for West Coast travelers and bad news for East Coasters—as the gap is closing fast between them, if not disappearing.

Only a year ago you could frequently buy tactical Business Class fares to Europe starting at around $1,700. I’m talking New York to Frankfurt for $1,692, Atlanta to Zurich for $1,697, Boston to Amsterdam for $1,704, Washington, DC to Athens for $1,768, and Chicago and Houston to Nice for $1,789. Ah, the memories.

But what happened to these fares?

A year or so later—with the DJIA increasing as much as 20%+ in the interim—the only route we’re seeing under $2,000 from New York is to Minsk; and the same New York to Frankfurt Business Class ticket you could buy for $1,700, is now $2,400—up 29%.

So, do I assume that fares will go down to the price I paid in the past?

Not until macroeconomic trends change.

So…

You must re-program yourself to what appears to be the new norm.

To that end, in November we reported that airlines had called a tactical-fare-war ceasefire on Transatlantic Business Class travel, instead turning their fare fire on travelers with higher pricing, likely because the market seems to be able to bear more.

The questions on everyone’s mind: How long will the ceasefire last? Will fares come down again (to $1,700 fare levels from the East Coast)? Or (gulp) will they increase even more?

THE FARE CRUISING ALTITUDE

By all appearances, it’s a seller’s market. Seven months since our cease-fire report, it seems that higher fares just might be the new norm.

In November, we reported that fares had increased across the board by 20% to 30%, and in some cases over 60%.

So, you might have thought, well OK, the worst is over. But given that we saw an increase on the Dallas-London route from $2,300 to $3,800 in 2017, for example, that’s not necessarily the case. This route is now often pricing at $4,132, so another $332 more—and almost double from less than a year ago.

Depending on the route, FCF is seeing a second round of fare increases, typically ranging from $126 to $502.

Consolation: While fares are not as great as before, at the same time, the fares are not bad when compared to other regions of the world, like the South Pacific, where the average Business Class fare is between $5,000 and $6,000 and is relatively unchanged over the last year.

HERE AT FCF HQ

We’ve had our binoculars on the battlefield to supply you with up-to-the-minute dispatches.

THEN vs NOW

The Good News:
West Coast to Europe
Business Class Fares Decreasing

FCF first reported on this plunge back in January 2017, and on the bright side, at least for half the country.

Business Class fares from cities such as Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco have historically ranged from $4,500 to $7,000 on major carriers and are now pricing between $2,600 and $3,000! One unusual route, Portland-London, is as low as $2,250 for travel in August.

Seems like fares are more and more being priced at what consumers are willing to pay versus the less-sophisticated way of being based on “distance.”

Is a New Yorker willing to pay more—or less—than a Californian to fly to London or Paris? Seems like the answer to this, albeit an unsophisticated question, is no.

Bad News:
East Coast to Europe
Business Class Still Increasing

Many routes have seen an increase in fares. In November fares ranged from $1,700 to $2,000 for low-cost routes, now the range is from $2,200 to $2,400. You can still find fares for under $2,500. Take non-stop New York to Shannon, Ireland, for example. It goes for $2,193, round-trip. Compared to other high fare routes, such as London at $3,588, that’s a savings of $1,395 (39%). More here.

Two DestinationS for
(Much) Less than One

The Open-Jaw ticketing strategy can be a glorious one, shaving enough off your ticket to upgrade your hotel stay to a suite, at both destinations, free! Just incorporate a low- and high-fare route on one ticket with a cheap, second ticket to “bridge” the two. Voila!

Summer Business Class Deals—Gonzo

In the past, you could often score a great summer Business Class fare to Europe. Well, they’re gone. Not sold-out, gone. At least, at this point they are. Will that remain for the summer of 2018?

Something to do with the economy? Probably. In our experience, fares tend to be higher when the market is up because people are spending more. But there are other factors at play, such as tactical competition as well.

In the meantime, stay flexible. Remember, everything’s pretty close in Europe, so getting to the destination of your choice isn’t such a big deal. For more on that see our report on How to be an Opportunity Traveler, the best way to get through times like this unscathed.

Time to Take Advantage of Other Discounts

For additional savings on Air France, Delta, and KLM Business Class fares, remember to check the Amex IAP program which can offer a fare discount of 8% to 12%. So, when you’re browsing through FCF special fare alerts and spot a low fare, call Amex Platinum Card Travel (1-800-525-3355) and save another couple hundred dollars or more.

Also, consider British Airways’ Business Class fares. They can be slightly higher than other major airlines, but with the AARP Discount (anyone can join for $16), members save up to $200. For example, with the Portland to London fare ($2,251), the AARP discount drops the cost to $2,051. Details here.

Britishairways.com: AARP member discounts on BA

The Best U.S.-Europe Business Class Fares Found:

QUICK OVERVIEW:
FCF’S DISCOUNT FARE DETECTOR

FCF’s Discount Fare Detector gives you a treasure map that shows where the low tactical fares are. We report on unusually-low tactical airfares based on the findings of our research team. They dive deep into the airlines’and other websites and trawl for ridiculously low tactical fare sales.

This is not an alternative to Expedia or Priceline, sites that throw any and all fares at you for your particular itinerary. FCF’s Discount Fare Detector gives you only extraordinary opportunities, but it’s also intuitive, giving you lots of options to consider around that itinerary.

More Ways to Deal with High Business Class Fares to Europe

• Don’t get mad, get even. Beat the airlines by being flexible. Have a bucket list of several cities, not just one, and pick them off when those “low-hanging fares” appear.
• Keep an ongoing eye on prices, not just once a year when you might typically go on vacation. Opportunity has its own schedule.
• Consider an open-jaw ticket where you fly to one city but return from a different, cheaper city.
• Have a bunch of miles ready (bought on sale) to side-step around those ugly high fares.