The best deals, courtesy of Flash First Class Fares, are now three-month advance-purchase tickets.
Flash First Class fares now seem to be the out-of-town Broadway try-out for the airlines. Put it out, take it off, revise the script, and then really put the fare out there.That's the gist of the 90-day advance-purchase fares that have cropped up and seem like they're going to have a long run. (See latest here for the ways in which the airlines have rehearsed this new script.)
Surprisingly, this new fare trend was started by Air France, normally not a fare innovator, especially in First Class, but on July 28 it set off this trend. Previously, the norm for the lowest First Class fare was a 150-day advance-purchase. Air France's new fare started at $3,413.
The airline pulled the fare after a few days, but other Star Alliance airlines (Lufthansa, SWISS, and United) caught the fever, offering First Class at $3,514 on New York-London with a 90-day advance-purchase. These fares, wildly underpriced, have since been pulled.
Here are two great examples of the new 90-day advance paradigm.
United (Star Alliance): In July, United's First Class fare Chicago-Madrid was about $5,383. Now United's lowest First Class fare starts at $4,575, a decrease of about $808, and $894 less than British Airways lowest 90-day advance-purchase fare of $5,469.
Air France: Take the Miami-London route; in July the First Class fare cost $5,765. Now, the lowest First Class fare is $4,384, a decrease of about $1,381 (a stop in Paris is allowed for $500 one-way). On Philadelphia-Paris in July, a First Class ticket cost $6,696; now the lowest First Class fare starts at $4,222, a decrease of about $2,474.
Will this 90-day advance-purchase trend and more Flash First Class fare trends continue? We think so.
Over the last five years, this skit has been played out with Business Class fares. Reduce (at times even change restrictions) and flash—and if it works, then that's the new norm. First Class is now being subjected to the same try-out.
Often these First Class Flash Fares first appear on routes which require a connection, so be ready to book. For more on how a ticket can be extended on 13 airlines’ websites (plus as many as 15 partner airlines), see FCF’s July report on How to Hold Amazing Business and First Class Flash Fares Before They Disappear into a Black Hole.
In the meantime, scour 90-day advance-purchase First Class fares on Air France and Star Alliance airlines. If this trend continues, watch for oneworld airlines (American and British Airways) to join in.
The FCF Reference Shelf
A year ago American offered a $125 one-way upgrade to First from Business Class on three international routes (Dallas to Paris, Madrid, and Frankfurt), with fares starting as low as $3,174. The catch: American was updating its cabins, and among the changes was reducing aircraft which offered a First Class cabin. Now, with only one aircraft offering a First Class cabin, AA’s B777-300ER, AA no longer offers $125 upgrades to First Class to Europe, but British Airways fares have been trending downward, seemingly sparked my American and around the same time.Moral of the story: Don't rely on what was true yesterday for reason X or Y, as the speed of change is accelerating and for reasons we can't always see, including the most obscure and one-off circumstances can accelerate the premium airfare rEvolution, never to return, "the way things used to be," for better and worse.