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If you have American miles, great. If you don't have any American miles, great.

LAX to Sydney is one of the most coveted long-haul routes for U.S. travelers. But Business Class redemptions using miles? Rare. Costly.

And paying with cash? That'll drain your bank account faster than a Vegas weekend—we're talking $7,443+ for Business Class, $20,877+ for First.

Don't worry, I have a solution.

For solo travelers, couples, and even families.

I've written before about the Iterative Upgrade Mindset. Think of it like kaizen, that Japanese philosophy of continuous improvement that Toyota made famous. You know, the one where you make small, incremental tweaks over time instead of trying to nail everything perfectly on the first shot.

In the travel world, this means treating your flight booking as an ongoing project, on long-haul trips when comfort (and cost) really matter – not a one-and-done transaction. Because let's face it: What are the odds you're going to find the perfect deal on your exact route, date, airline, and class of service all in one magical search, when you want to initially book?

The Beauty of Playing the Airlines' Own Game

Here's the beautiful part—this approach turns the airlines' own game against them. See, airlines are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They've got unfilled seats that become worthless the moment that plane takes off—like unsold produce going bad at the grocery store. But they can't exactly advertise fire-sale prices without infuriating everyone who paid full freight 11 months ago.

And they certainly can't train us to wait for deals, right? (Oops, too late.)

So what do they do? They get sneaky about it.

Today we're going to talk about American Airlines' recent award availability trends (no, you don’t need any AA miles to care!): how they release mileage award tickets close-in on one spectacular long-haul route and how you can leverage this for bragging-rights upgrades or massive savings.

Use This Strategy If:

• You’re a bags-packed traveler open to a last-minute trip in a week or up to four
• You bought a ticket 11 months ago for full price and would like to upgrade the quality or cost of your ticket

Australia Premium Class As Good as It Gets

Check this out. When was the last time you saw First Class available for just 75,000 miles and $25.70 in taxes? Or Business Class for 65,000 miles and $27.30 in taxes? Or even Premium Economy for this long of a flight for only 50,000 miles?

All screenshots from AA.com

No Miles? No Problem.

The airline runs sales on their miles off and on all the time. Right now you can buy up to 200,000 miles for $4,515. That comes to 2.3 cents per mile. Take a look:

You only need to buy as many miles as you need. The more miles you buy, the bigger the discount.

What Kind of Airline Ticket Can You Get by Buying American Miles for 2.3 Cents Each?

Flying from the U.S. to/from Sydney, Australia, my Buy Miles to Fly in Style Strategy looks like this:

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At the risk of repeating myself, that's:

1. Save $4,450 on Business Class ($448 less than Premium Economy—less than a free upgrade), OR
2. Save $17,434 on First Class, OR
3. Get First Class for less than half the price of Business Class, OR
4. Get a 2-Class upgrade to First Class from Premium Economy for $4 more

The Data-Driven Travelers Advantage

Here's what separates Iterative Upgrade travelers from conventional bookers:

Conventional Bookers:

• Accept initial search results as final
• Book once and forget
• Pay premium prices for “security”
• Miss upgrade opportunities entirely

Iterative Upgrade Mindset Travelers:

• Treat initial bookings as starting points
• Monitor systematically for improvements
• Understand inventory patterns
• Leverage airlines’ fear of empty seats

The LAX-Sydney data proves that patience and systematic checking beat panicked early booking every time. More on how and where availability works in a moment. First, let's dive into how and why this works.

Why Be a Last-Minute Iterative Upgrader?

You might be thinking, "What the heck, Bennett, that sounds stressful; just let me buy the darn ticket and be done with it."

Well, first of all, you need to consider that this ticket you purchased:

1. Cost much more than you likely wanted to pay (in miles or cash), and/or
2. Is in a lesser class of service than you want (say Premium Economy or Business), and/or
3. May not be on your ideal airline (it has average seats or lacks the amenities you like), and/or
4. May not be very convenient (number of stops, routing, airports, connection times, dates, etc.)

Don't Live in Los Angeles?

That might not be a problem. Consider New York instead. Pricing and availability is all over the place. By definition, it's "dynamic" these days. But here you can see an example of close-in availability from New York in Premium Economy and Business:

JFK - Sydney
‍Business Class

JFK - Sydney
Premium Economy

Don't Like American?

American Airlines miles can be used to redeem on their partner, Qantas. This is good for several reasons. Qantas has many routes to the US, and you may not like American Airlines. Here's an example of a Dallas-Sydney Business Class deal on Qantas, although availability is much more limited with Qantas, so you’d have to be very flexible on your dates:

The Cancel Fee Equation

But Bennett, you're telling me to change the ticket I bought 11 months or five months ago, for an opportunity that's available a week or four before departure, right? Won't I lose the value of the ticket I already bought and face high fees?

Thanks for asking.

Nowadays, cash tickets (aka published fares) can typically be canceled, and you can apply the full value of those fares to a future ticket for little or no cost on most airlines for up to a year. To confirm, ask airline reservations, or you can find a link to "fare rules" online on the "manage your reservation" web page if you haven't already read the rules when you purchased the ticket.

Mileage tickets can be canceled, changed, or redeposited for free or at a low fee nowadays. Here are a few examples:

• American: No changes allowed. Cancellation and redeposit of miles are free.
• Delta: Changes, cancellations, and redeposits are free.
• United: Changes, cancellations, and redeposits are free.

In other words, with most airlines (be sure to check with yours), it's so cheap and easy to change and improve your ticket, it's not worth thinking twice about.

How Many Seats Actually Open Up Right Before Departure?

We've been monitoring Los Angeles-Sydney closely for a while, and here's the most recent data based on research just before publication. It’s been pretty consistent for the last couple months. Reliable availability in other words. Our data is organized by class of service—First Class, Business Class, and Premium Economy.

In each table, it's arranged by the number of seats or travelers flying (one seat for solo travelers, two seats for couples, and four+ seats for families), and then organized by week before departure. The outbound flight is first, the return table is second. So you can get a sense of when availability at this crazy-low pricing occurs.

You know FCF brings the data. Here's today's:

First Class Availability

Los Angeles → Sydney

Number of Days per Week Available

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Sydney → Los Angeles

Number of Days per Week Available

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Business Class Availability

Los Angeles → Sydney

Number of Days per Week Available

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Sydney → Los Angeles

Number of Days per Week Available

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Premium Economy Availability

Los Angeles → Sydney

Number of Days per Week Available

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Sydney → Los Angeles

Number of Days per Week Available

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Want More Good News?

The availability above was for seats at the lowest possible level: 50,000 miles for Premium Economy, 65,000 miles for Business, and 75,000 miles for First Class each way.

But it doesn't end there. Remember, American Airlines moved to a "dynamic" pricing program. The data is crystal clear in the tables above at the most coveted pricing levels, but we found that you can still find deals—say 10% to 30% more miles—with better availability. So there are a lot more opportunities, especially in Premium Economy, but also in Business Class, and even in First Class at times.

More Tips & Things to Remember

• What if my exact routing can’t be accommodated in conjunction with the Los Angeles-Sydney nonstop on American? Right, remember positioning flights.
• Mix & Match Awards—Class of Service Date Deal Options Mindset
  
  • Look at multiple classes of service at multiple dates and find where they align on travel dates you desire. Go where the deal is, mixing classes of service if you have to, or tweaking your dates to land the big prize deal
  • Availability is hit and miss by day and class, so don’t hesitate if only Business Class is available one way and First Class is on the other
  • Fly First Class one way, Business Class the other—with kids in Premium Economy

Iterative Upgrade Tactics: How to Apply the LAX-Sydney Model

The Systematic Approach:

1. Book your baseline ticket (Premium Economy, or Economy if you must, or higher if you can) for peace of mind
2. Mark your calendar for the 30-day countdown
3. Begin daily checking at day 30, focusing more as departure draws near
4. Execute your upgrade when availability peaks
5. Cancel your baseline ticket and bank the credit—only AFTER you have a new ticket and ticket numbers verified
6. Repeat the process if you keep finding better options

The Iterative Upgrade Advantage Is Your Best Upgrade Friend

You've already done the grunt work of planning your trip—researched destinations, arranged time off, coordinated with travel companions. So why settle for your first booking when systematic improvement is not only possible but provable?

Our LAX-Sydney tracking project validates what the Iterative Upgrade Mindset has always taught: small, systematic improvements compound into extraordinary results. They aren't accidents. They're predictable inventory management decisions by airlines that hate flying with empty premium cabins.

The airlines built their pricing systems to extract maximum revenue from travelers who book early and never look back. But iterative upgraders understand the game differently. We know that "sold out" often means "wait a few days." We know that premium inventory opens up as departure approaches on secret routes. Most importantly, we know that systematic checking beats random luck every time.

If you applied this upgrade mindset as a lifestyle, you'd consistently fly better for less while others pay premium prices for the illusion of security. The LAX-Sydney data doesn't just prove the theory—it gives you the exact playbook for one of the world's most coveted premium routes.

See you up front.