You’ve got to love competition, as it can change fares overnight by as much as 18%—and the advance-purchase requirement by as much as a week.
That’s exactly what has happened on the transcon since January, sparked by a new seat rollout, of all things.
Stage One: Last March, United was the first to roll out new Business Class seats on its transcons, priced at $4,400 on the Los Angeles-JFK route. It seemed that the new seats justified the high fare.
Then, on Jan. 7, American started rolling out its new transcon aircraft and Business Class seats from LAX. Overnight, United’s fare dropped from $4,400 on Jan. 8, to $3,592 on Jan. 9, matching AA’s fare on this route.
Stage Two: In February, the other shoe dropped: AA changed the advance-purchase requirement from 30 days to 21, and a few days later, United followed suit.
Comparing New Transcon Business Class Fares
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What’s Next?
The pattern will probably repeat itself to some degree when JetBlue starts service in June from LAX, offering everyday Business Class fares starting at $1,200 round-trip—as of now, by far the best non-stop transcon fare—and with a new flat-bed seat.
[aside headline="How to Avoid Paying Thousands on the Transcon" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]
For as little as $991, FCF outlines many strategies in our recent series on the Transcon…
See FCF’s last Oct., Dec., and Jan. issues, each of which highlights strategies for lowering the cost of flying cross-country on five airlines.
These include the “SLS” (Stopover Loophole Strategy), in which you buy an inexpensive premium fare ticket for an itinerary that allows a free stop in JFK, LAX, or SFO (starting at just $991), and the “Package Strategy” in which you buy a premium-fare ticket as part of a package that includes a hotel (saving up to 31%).[/aside]
The other carriers won’t drop fares that low, their prices will likely come down, and certainly on flights that are “soft” from a yield management perspective. (Delta’s Saturday and late afternoon to midnight flights already cost less than a mid-morning or mid-day flight.)
Things could really heat up this summer with more flat-beds in the air. By July, Delta, and by August, Jet Blue, will have flatbeds on every LAX-JFK flight, and AA will complete its new aircraft rollout in May (LAX-JFK) and June (SFO-JFK).
When to Buy What Airline
For now, if you are paying cash, and can book 21 days out, and are willing to fly between 5 pm and midnight or Saturday from LAX and on Friday or Saturday from SFO, Delta is your best option. Fares start at $2,246 from LAX and $2,486 from SFO.
If that doesn’t suit, go with American or United, starting at about $3,572 from LAX with a 21-day advance purchase requirement. For last-minute travel, Virgin America offers the best-published fare ($4,034) and United the worst, more than $5,900. As of June 15, Jet Blue has the lowest fare from LAX, at $1,198 round-trip.