The airline’s new SkyMiles elite upgrade program continues a trend: Blurring the value between elite upgrades, mileage upgrades, and domestic published fares.

Delta just announced new changes to its SkyMiles loyalty program, including a reduction in the elite qualification threshold for Platinum membership (from 100,000 Elite Qualifying Miles to 75,000); reduced ticketing fees; and most importantly, new and simplified (but not simple to understand) elite upgrade changes.

On the Surface: The Good

Beginning Jan. 1, 2005, Delta will increase the Medallion Qualification Miles (MQM) awarded on deeply discounted coach fares (L, U, and T). In other words, elite membership will now be more accessible to travelers flying on the least expensive fares.

In the most interesting move, free upgrades can now be confirmed on Delta-operated flights by ANY elite member, based on availability — at time of ticketing — with flights booked in M, B, or Y class.

The airline will also increase the elite upgrade confirmation window(s) for ALL Medallion members booking heavily discounted fares, from one to five days before departure, based on status.

The big winners: Travelers booking heavily discounted fares. They’ll now have a better chance at earning Medallion status, and occasionally getting a free bone.

Silver and Gold Medallions booking M, B, and Y fares will be happy that they will be able to confirm free upgrades at time of ticketing (based on availability). Before they could only confirm upgrades 72 to 100 hours before departure.

Medallion members flying routes offering disproportionately low M fares will be thrilled. (More on this next month.)

Losers: Current Platinum Medallion members. The numbers qualifying at this level will skyrocket, thus diluting benefits. (The number of members all vying for the same number of free upgrade seats could perhaps double.)

Not good.

Due to the ever expanding markets offering heavily discounted domestic First Class fares, which are increasingly being gobbled up (especially by those less interested in playing the elite upgrade lottery), the number of unsold First Class seats, otherwise available to elites, is spiraling downward. Add twice the number of elites seeking upgrades to half the number of seats available, and the number of these upgrades could conceivably be slashed by 75% in many markets.

The Deeper Truth: The Bad

Just like the significant increase in the numbers at the Platinum Medallion level, the new policy will also increase the number of elites at the lower level, again, all vying for an ever decreasing number of free upgrade seats.

The odds of getting your free upgrade just plummeted — odds that serious First Class flyers can’t rely on — making the upgrade benefits nearly worthless to many.

The Big Picture: Very Complicated

[aside headline="Special Fare Codes to Look/Ask For" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]

America West    Y-UP American           A / D / I / Y-UP Continental        A / Z Delta                  QDL-UP / YDL-UP / Y-UP Northwest          F / Y-UP United                A / QUA-UP / Y-UP / Z US Airways        A

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Delta’s new “simplified” elite upgrade system is still complicated. The lowest fares that offer free upgrades at time of ticketing, M, are not available on every route. In fact, there are very few M fares from Delta’s home base (Atlanta) leaving B fares, which are quite high. Okay, there are a number of reasonable M fares on transcontinental routes and in some other markets, but often there are even lower heavily discounted First Class published fares in these markets, with better seat availability. (Raise your hand if you’re still with me.)

These inconsistencies will make any one ticketing method not consistently reliable.

Now, why in the world would you use miles to upgrade domestically if you’re an elite? Because the lowest “upgradeable fare” permitted using miles is also an M fare — the same fare that offers elites a free upgrade at time of booking. Therefore, there isn’t a reason an elite would ever want to use miles to upgrade domestically.

See chart (below) and “The New Four Steps to Your Best Domestic First Class Fare” (article on page 5) for general guidelines and how to determine the best fare for you.

Conclusion

The value of free elite upgrades versus booking a published First Class fare will continue to be blurred. The declining availability of elite upgrades will prompt the serious premium traveler to confirm First Class well in advance — any way he can. The traveler at the next tier, who is willing to gamble on the free upgrade, will be increasingly disappointed. The gamblers will lose more often than they win, since premium seats will be sold faster at lower levels, leaving fewer, if any, available at departure.

Postscript: There are a slew of other benefits included in Delta’s new changes. Find them here: www.delta.com/skymileschanges. But I’ll reveal the ending right now: None of them are deal-menders for the premium traveler.

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