Doom or Boom? FCF’s Fearless 2022 Forecast & 2021 Wrap

January 2022
Read Offline

Happy New Year to all our awesome readers!

I hope 2022 is a year filled with comfy seats, on-time departures and steady cruising altitudes. Not to mention the thrill of new destinations and the comfort of old. Travel is food for the soul and I think we all deserve more of that soul-nurturing nourishment at 40,000 feet after the last couple years.

So what’s in the forecast for the year ahead? Once again, we’re dusting off our Czech Republic-sourced Bohemian crystal ball to give you our best predictions for 2022. But good predictions are based on relevant experience and long-accumulated knowledge, so what better base to use than the complicated year that just passed?

It’s Crystal Ball Time at FCF

So first, let’s recap 2021.

With domestic business travel still down, there were (and still are) plenty of First Class seats that are going unsold that the airlines don't want to “give away” to their loyal frequent flyers. Instead, they are discounting domestic First Class fares as we most recently discovered here, here, and here. Relatively cheap domestic First Class seats is another reason NOT to care about chasing elite status credentials so you can avoid unpredictable upgrade-confirmation anxiety, nicely.

Mileage Award Availability

An unwelcome surprise in 2021 was that even though travel picked up again, the airlines reverted back to their typical stinginess with award seats. Award space was wide open on several routes with several airlines through June. Then when travel returned, award space dried up like a bone, as reported here, here and here.

Airline award prices continued to skyrocket in 2021. “Dynamic” award pricing, where prices fluctuate (supposedly based on demand), is proving to be a loyalty killer. First there was Delta, and then in 2021 United’s inflation resembled the United States, or worse.

A380’s

A380sslowly made their way back onto airline rosters in 2021. It’s a favorite aircraft of FCF-ers, so that was welcome news. We’ve heard rumors that Etihad’s A380 (which has my favorite seat) might even make a comeback in 2022.

Hidden Refundable Fares

In addition to the proliferation of cancellable fares, which didn’t surprise us, little-known refundable fares are now part of the travel landscape as we told you here. Surprisingly, few people know about them. Will they stick around after more lockdowns go away? Let’s hope so.

International Business Class Fare Trends

  • Africa: We found Cape Town from $2,625 and Cairo, Morocco, and Nairobi are destinations that have been trending downward and remain around $2,100 or less.
  • Asia: Fares were higher than we’ve seen for a couple of years, in the $4,000 to $9,000 range nonstop. Not many remarkable fares are up for grabs right now, except for the remarkable Maldives starting at $2,238.
  • Europe: There were lots of great fares to Europe and many destinations were intermittently under $2,000 for round-trips on major airlines, as reported here and here.
    •  
  • Hawaii: Fares under $1,000 have been available to Honolulu and Kona sporadically from the West Coast. Meanwhile, nonstops from major Midwest and Eastern hubs are running in the $2,000 to $3,000+ range. Nothing special as demand outstrips supply for the most part.
    •  
  • Mexico: Fares have been available from all over the U.S. and Canada to Acapulco from $587; to Cabo from $552; to Cancun from $512; from the Midwest and the East Coast to Cozumel from $537.
  • South America: Last year we frequently saw amazing long-haul fares as low as $1,402 to Brazil, $1,589 to Chile and $1,714 to Argentina. Keep an eye on this region for the best values in 2022.

What Didn’t Surprise Us in 2021: Elite Status Continued to Deteriorate

Elite status continued its inexorable value descent in 2021. No joy to report there, but no surprises either. Loyalty simply isn’t rewarded anymore. Let’s take a closer look.

American Airlines: This just-overhauled elite program is a joke for the average, not-high rolling 'loyal' frequent flyer. When everyone is elite, is anyone elite? Oh, and anyone can get most minor perks without loyalty, such as Main Cabin Extra seats, for a relatively modest price.

Delta Air Lines: Its new changes are a sad joke for its top fliers, much more so in 2022, with its most recent perk reductions, most notably how it upgrades its top-tier Medallion members, with the elimination of economy to Business Class upgrades. You can also forget about earning miles on its lowest fares.

United Airlines: Why should premium travelers bother with this 'elite' status program?

If you aren't very familiar with FCF's perspective on Elite Hype Hypnotics, get up to speed here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and: - It’s Not Too Late to Excommunicate Yourself From ‘The Elite Class’ - An Elite-Status Declaration of Independence

Looking Forward to 2022

Continue to see award availability from American, Delta, and United at higher levels compared to years past. Availability at lower levels is so awful right now that it can only improve from here, you’d think. Only time will tell. An interesting FCF survey is coming in February you won't want to miss.

Routes to destinations with tourist-friendly entry policies, like Belize, Croatia, Maldives, Portugal, and Ukraine for example, are offering many flights and therefore have a surplus of premium seats to discount.

Expect cities with the most lockdown restrictions, such as Los Angeles, New York, and Italy to have lower fares due to significantly less demand. Airlines will continue to reduce flights to such cities in 2022. Among hidden anomaly fares, gouging will continue to affect some destinations. With every virus variant that comes along, transitioning back to normalcy will continue to be on and off again until we learn to live with it; house elections will inevitably upend the otherwise prevailing narrative, however.

Link to IATA’s Jabbed and Unjabbed restrictions by country.

Domestic First Class fares will continue to be low, as the last thing airlines want to do is give free upgrades to frequent flyers.

The best deals to high-demand Hawaii can be found using packages with airlines that have bulk air.

Advance planners to Europe will feel the brunt as airlines evaluate revenue versus demand, and will be happy to charge an arm and a leg to travelers who crave the sense of security of far-out bookings.

South America is the cheapest hot spot. Now's the time to visit because flash Business Class fares in the $1,500 range are fairly predictable every couple of weeks. Think of destinations like Iguazu Falls, the Andes, Patagonia, and Rio.

Expect sporadic award availability on non-U.S. carriers to mark the year. Be ready to jump when the deals hit. Book partner awards now as we told you here.

While credit card points collectors may safely hold on to their points, we recommend burning your airline loyalty program miles whenever possible. Unfortunately, inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

Some of FCF’s favorite strategies will continue to be attractive in 2022:

Thank You

A heartfelt thanks to all our wonderful readers for sticking with FCF through thick and thin.

Here’s to 2022 and to all of your happy travel dreams coming true at last.

See you up front.
No items found.