Premium Airfare Volatility At Record High On North Atlantic Flights

February 2013
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This means a bounty of amazingly low EasyUp Business Class fares, starting at $1,245 round-trip

Excess premium-class inventory along with fierce competition among airlines flying the North Atlantic has led to extreme fare volatility on this route, especially in Business Class, for the past few months—and will continue, FCF predicts.

Business Class fares to Europe are changing not only by the day, but by the hour—to the extent that we have had to re-write FCF Fare Alerts several times before they could be posted, as well as this article just this morning.

Quick Backstory

One major cause of the volatility is the revolutionary premium airfares to Europe and Asia that we discovered and reported on in the December 2012 issue. It was natural to call them “EasyUp” fares because they were an economy class fare with an automatic upgrade to Business Class built-in for a relatively low flat fee. They made many other upgrade and mileage strategies worthless.

Originally offered by American and Delta only, the fares disappeared in mid-December, then came roaring back in early January (as we predicted), and offered by more airlines to more destinations than before.

American Airlines was the first to bring back the fare, raising the upgrade surcharge from $250 to $500 each way. (It is still an amazing value compared to traditional Business Class rates.) The fare was matched, even undercut, within a day, by SkyTeam alliance members (Air France, Alitalia, Delta, and KLM) and many Star Alliance members (Air Canada, Austrian, Brussels, Lufthansa, SWISS, United, and US Airways). Even Virgin Atlantic, often a holdout, joined the bandwagon.

New Fare Category Sparks New Fare War (see Jan. 7 FCF alert).

Unlike American, however, the other carriers decided to show the fare as a “promotional” Business Class fare, even though it has the same DNA as an EasyUp: That being a 60-day advance-purchase requirement and a 10-day minimum stay requirement. The fares started as low as $2,183 from New York (see Jan. 8 FCF alert) and $2,185 from Los Angeles, and had no ticketing deadline when they first came out. (That didn’t last long.)

EasyUp Fare Volatility in January

Here’s just a few of endless examples of how fluid the EasyUp fare world has become:

  • SkyTeam decreased EasyUp fares on many routes by about $200 on Jan.10.
  • United and the rest of the Star Alliance dropped EasyUp fares for year-round travel to almost all destinations on Jan. 10. Then, they introduced summer EasyUp fares, but they were shooting stars, offered Jan. 14 to 16 and Jan. 16 to 22.
  • SkyTeam dropped winter and spring EasyUp fares on Jan. 14.
  • American dropped EasyUp fares for winter and spring travel almost as soon as it brought them back, and in mid-January only offered the fare to Barcelona and Madrid from Philadelphia.
  • Fares on many airlines expired on Jan. 22, only to be brought back on Jan. 23, with an expiration date of March 31.
  • On Jan. 24, United and the rest of the Star Alliance decreased EasyUp fares on many routes by about $200 but with an expiration date of Jan. 25.
  • On the morning of Jan. 25 we discovered that Delta had come back with EasyUp fares identical to December’s (see Jan. 25 FCF alert)—an economy fare with a built-in round-trip upgrade of $500. How good were the fares? In December, the lowest route priced in at $1,222, and now the lowest fare starts at $1,245 (New York Dublin). Why so low? Because the taxes were based on an economy ticket, which can make a huge difference. For example, to Dublin, the economy tax is $310, while the Business Class tax is $994, a difference of $684.
  • On the afternoon of Jan. 25, US Airways started reducing its Business Class fares to Europe.
  • On the morning of Jan. 29 we discovered new Delta EasyUp fares sparked a new, even lower, second major fare war in January (see Jan. 29 FCF alert). EasyUp fares were being offered on Star Alliance airlines Air Canada, Austrian Airlines, Brussels, Lufthansa, SWISS, United, and US Airways. On many routes these carriers offered the same base fare as Delta, but taxes were based on a Business Class fare, making Delta still the lowest priced airline on most routes.
  • On the afternoon of Jan. 29 American matched United’s lower Business Class fares on many routes. The one big exception: London.
  • Delta dropped new winter and spring EasyUp fares on Jan. 30 to most European cities.
  • United and Star partners dropped new EasyUp fares mid-morning on Jan. 31—a day before the ticketing deadline.
  • At press-time EasyUp fares were still offered on 9 airlines at different travel times—most airlines offered them for travel in the summer—and different departure and destination cities—making them a moving target on many routes.
  • The Takeaway

The fares are not going away, but you have to pull the trigger when you find one. Especially on an airline that allows an upgrade to First using miles (See page 1 for more on this, and FCF’s Nov 2012 issue, page 2). You get the best of both worlds: a low price and an opportunity to get a great return on your miles.

Stay on top of EasyUp and “Flash Sales” on premium fares and other deals in First Class Flyer’s newsroom.

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