Although its international wings have been severely clipped, EasyUps are going to fly high again
Now I know how it feels to have the flying carpet pulled out from under me.
I devoted more than half of the December issue to a new international fare category offered by American and Delta that I dubbed “EasyUp.” It’s economy class ticket with a Business Class upgrade built-in—for a very modest surcharge. With upgrades starting at just $250 one-way, EasyUp fares were a revolutionary development.
They drastically reduced the cost of flying Premium Class—to as low as $1,200 in Business Class to Europe on some routes (up to 74% drop), and $3,900 in First to Asia (up to 74% drop). The new fares were poised to undermine the whole edifice of loyalty programs and mileage upgrades for many travel scenarios.
So I went out on a limb, even though somewhere in the back of my mind a little voice was saying, “This is too good to be true.” My confidence stemmed from the fact that the new fares had neither expiration dates—the hallmark of “Flash Sales”—nor seasonal restrictions, which usually accompany the short-lived fares. Plus, the fares had already been in the market—but without any promotion—for more than a month when I ran across them.
“EasyUp fares are here to stay,” I wrote. “While these new fares feel too good to be true, and the tiny pessimist part of me wonders how they can stay. If I had to guess, I must say the new fares will stay and we will only see changes in the cities that qualify for the fare. (American added Frankfurt as I was writing this report.) Rules will be fine-tuned, certainly. Over time, the advance purchase rule will probably be pushed farther out, especially if the airlines get a lot of takers for the new EasyUp fares.”
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”Flash Sales” are published fares which are here today and gone tomorrow. They have very short-lived ticketing deadlines and are frequently available for travel only during certain times of the year. The fares are often very, very low.
Among the flurry of amazing fares available in December was American’s First Class to Tokyo for $3,155 round-trip (otherwise up to $25,000). It was only available for three days (see our Dec. 14 alert). The fare is even less when you figure in the off-set cost for the miles earned on the trip, 20,000, which have a replacement cost of about $550. If someone had told me back in September, “Hey Bennett, come December you can fly in First Class for about $2,600 round-trip to Asia on a three-class aircraft,” I would have said they were crazy!
Another great “Flash Sale” fare was offered to South America, Buenos Aires and Santiago, which had fares starting at $2,429 inclusive in Business Class from the East and West Coast (see our Dec. 14 alert).
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Well, they got a raft of takers, and a raft of grief, apparently, from some of their alliance partners. Now they’ve pulled all of the fares to Europe, although EasyUps in First Class are still offered by American on flights to Asia. Throughout the process, FCF kept you abreast of the changes through our newsroom alerts.
Now, I’m here to tell you that we haven’t seen the last of EasyUp fares.
What’s Really Going On?
American is still offering First Class EasyUp fares to Beijing and Shanghai starting at $3,880 (all in), a drop of $7,420 (66%) off the normal First Class fare ($11,300). Is this indicative of things to come? What’s going on?
Clearly something. American doesn’t offer EasyUp fares to China, available year-round, along with flash fares to Tokyo—at eye-popping prices—for no reason.
Delta wouldn’t test a new type of international fare for three months, maniacally change it in a week, and pull it shortly thereafter, if there weren’t significant rethinking of the Business Class fare for leisure travelers. That’s my conclusion, anyway, after studying premium-cabin airfares night and day for the last 19 years.
Long Story Short
Data scientists use the field of “Predictive Analytics” to use past data to predict the future.
For years American’s “Yield Management” unit had the reputation of being the best in the business, but in this case, it couldn’t figure out how to get this new fare just right. Yet it acted more confidently than Delta.
Flash Sales don’t have to be perfect. They usually last but a week or less on select routes. Little harm can be done.
Delta and American just under-priced themselves on a fare that they offered year-round. They need more time and more data before they can apply advanced Yield Management practices to European routes.
As U.S. carriers get better at international Flash Sales, predictable, stable EasyUp fares will emerge.The airlines are almost there, but they are not quite sophisticated enough to offer blanket, premium fares on a year-round basis.
What’s Next?
Look for the frequency of flash discounting on premium fares to increase—along with much more testing of EasyUp fares.
Flash Sale Fares will evolve into EasyUp fares, which will devolve into Flash Sale Fares. The cycle will continue until the fares are sustainable by the airlines’ supply and demand math.
Stay on top of the latest Flash Sales and EasyUp fare revolution in First Class Flyer’s newsroom.
It’s going to be a good cycle for the premium traveler who should be ready to take advantage of it.
See you up front.
PS: I would love for you to email me your ridiculously low EasyUp fare success story. We’re collecting them and looking at a way to publish these and other successful upgrade stories more often. Seeing what your upgrade brethren are pulling off can be inspiring. Write me today with your story while you’re thinking about it: Mr.Upgrade@firstclassflyer.com