FCF’s 2024 Crystal Ball Forecasts

January 2024
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Choose right to avoid a Dickens of a travel year

As Charles Dickens put it, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” It was the time to gaze into FCF’s Windex-polished crystal ball for our take on the year ahead, and how to avoid the worst times and travel foolishness.

Quick ‘23 Recap

How did you travel in 2023? Did you grab some tasty FCF fare offerings for travel across the pond? When flash fares are unavailable, typical fares to Europe on most routes have been high, while some fares to Asia have been lower than normal.

Holiday travel saw higher than usual fares to Europe. Instead of the typical short travel window from November 20 to December 3 for Thanksgiving and December 18 to January 4 for Christmas, the window expanded for travel throughout November, December, and January, as well as a short 7–10-day travel window both to and from Europe for Easter at the end of March to mid-April, which is still valid on many routes.

We’d love to be like David Copperfield and make these higher holiday fare trends disappear in the future, but we do like the expanded travel window.

Quick ‘24 Yap

It seems like airlines are increasing routes like there’s no tomorrow, so you’d think they’d open up a few award seats. C’mon guys, we’re watching, and we’re calling you out on this.

Cathay Pacific brings back First Class on their New York-Hong Kong route to resume service on April 1. Yes, it’s April Fool’s Day, but don't fool around, book now.

Etihad brings back First Class on the A380 on their New York-Abu Dhabi service starting April 22. And we love the A380.

Alaska Airlines will introduce award chart changes in March, as we reported here.

So, without further ado, let’s crystallize some predictions for fare fans and mile meisters for destinations across the globe — a tale of many cities!

FARES

ASIA

We’re seeing lesser-known carriers such as Starlux from Los Angeles and San Francisco to Taipei enter the market. Low-cost carriers such as JAL-owned Zipair are breaking into the Asian market with Business Class fares ranging as low as $1,763 to $3,171 round-trip from Los Angeles to Tokyo.

Business Class fares this past September we saw fares to Asia slashed to prices we’ve only seen coming out of lockdown, such as $2,662 from Los Angeles to Tokyo (thanks Zipair), $3,593 from Dallas on Delta, and from Atlanta on American for $3,649. Typical flash fares range from $3,400 to $3,700 from the West Coast, while those from the East Coast are generally $1,200+ more.

Out of Canada in Business Class, Star Alliance flash fares currently start at around $2,817 from Toronto to Osaka, and $3,379 from Vancouver to Tokyo. We see flash fares from all around Canada to Asia for just a few hundred more. Here’s a tip for our American readers: when fares are high to Asia, I urge you to consider this (very cool) Canadian workaround strategy.

We predict we’ll see some of the same lower flash fares to Asia for about $3,500 from the West Coast and about $4,000 from the East Coast. Fares from Canada may dip down as low as $2,500.

First Class fares to Asia from the U.S. range from $14,900 to $20,100 from the West Coast and $13,100 to $24,886 from the East Coast. We predict fares will continue to be as high in 2024 as they were in 2023.

EUROPE

Business Class flash fares are often about $2,500 from the East Coast and $2,900 from the West Coast. When flash fares are not available, typical fares to Europe on most routes have been high. For example:

  • Oneworld: On American Airlines from Philadelphia to Venice, we’ve recently seen flash fares for about $2,500. When these fares are not available, you can find prices in the $3,700 to $6,300 range.
  • SkyTeam: On Delta from Boston to Stockholm, recent flash fares ran about $2,580. When these low fares are not available, expect prices in the $2,900 to $5,300 range.
  • Star Alliance: We’ve recently seen flash fares from Miami to Milan on United for about $2,500. When these low fares are not offered, expect prices in the $3,200 to $7,075 range.

We predict Business Class flash fares will dip down to the $2,400 to $2,900 range from the West Coast and $1,800 to $2,200 from the East Coast.

First Class flash fares have recently been found in the $3,400 to $3,900 range on Oneworld from the East Coast to Amsterdam, Barcelona, Glasgow, London, Rome, and more. Compare Oneworld’s New York-to-Rome which runs $3,484 to $4,689, to Star Alliance, which ranges from $6,500 to $13,000, and SkyTeam, which ranges from $11,000 to $27,000. These are crazy-big differences that beg you to be a free agent, and not a loyalty-bound traveler.

West Coast Oneworld fares are typically $2,000+ more from Seattle and as much as $3,800+ more from California. This is a great time to go where the deals are and consider a positioning flight.

We predict that flash First Class fares will continue on some Oneworld routes throughout 2024.

When fares are high, don't be in a hurry to book right away if you don’t have to. FYI, we don’t think they’ll be any higher than they are right now.

Hawaii

American, Delta, and United’s lowest fares start at around $800 on a flash basis from the West Coast, while fares from the Midwest and East Coast are much higher than usual (in the $2,200 to $3,200 range), while non-stop fares from the East Coast and Midwest are in the $2,800 to $6,200 range.

For those looking ahead, now is not the time to buy tickets on American to Hawaii. For example, when looking at Los Angeles-to-Maui departures beyond 120 days, fares jump as much as 45%, whereas United’s fares are about 30% less and Delta’s are 30% to 50% less. Future travelers should stick to Delta or United. On the other hand, for travel within 120 days, Delta and United fares are typically higher than American’s. Again, being loyalty-free looks pretty good.

Transcon

If you don’t want to wake up at 4 a.m. or take the red-eye to arrive at 5 a.m. or 6 a.m., you can find the lowest fares on JetBlue and United within 120 days of travel. Here’s a comparison:

  • American fares for travel within 55 days range from $1,999 to $3,375, and for travel 55+ days out, fares range from $1,849 to $2,039.
  • United fares for travel within 120 days range from $1,399 to $2,375, and for travel 121+ days out, fares range from $1,917 to $2,375.
  • Delta fares for travel within 120 days range from $1,799 to $3,039, and for travel 121+ days out, fares range from $1,999 to $3,039.
  • JetBlue fares for travel within 120 days range from $1,200 to $1,800, and for travel 121+ days out, fares range from $1,700 to $2,700.

We predict these types of transcon fares will not change much throughout the year.

South America

We predict periodic flash deals in Business Class from the U.S. to Brazil and the rest of South America to continue.

Other recent South America deals are out there too. For example, Orlando-to-Santiago for $1,912 on American Airlines. That's as close to the lowest we've seen since March 2022 when the fares were $1,553 from the U.S. to Brazil. Look for deals like Miami-São Paulo, which dipped down to $1,930 this time last year on Delta and Latam.

Stay tuned to FCF’s Flash Fares alert room for the latest deals.

AFRICA

Recent flash fares to Nairobi from the East Coast are in the $2,900 to $3,600 range in Business Class for 34 hours of traveling, round-trip. Compare that to American and Delta’s typical U.S. transcon Business Class fares at about $2,500 for a flight that’s a third of that distance to Africa.

Johannesburg currently offers relative value in the $3,200 to $3,600 range on many routes when it used to be $5,000 to $6,000 not too long ago, and still is on some routes. That’s some big value there.

From Canada, Star Alliance Business Class flash fares are currently starting at around $1,954 to Nairobi from Toronto and $2,452 from Vancouver. Fares from Montreal to Johannesburg start around $2,260 and to Cape Town from $2,538.

We predict fares will not change much throughout the year. Stay tuned to FCF’s Flash Fares alerts room for the latest deals to Africa.

Miles & Points

Mileage availability on the big three carriers is scarce at the moment. Surprisingly, Air France and KLM lowered the cost of their awards. We predict some airlines will add more low-cost award availability to stay competitive.

If you can be flexible, opportunities open-up like poppies on a French field. You need to have your radar calibrated to the FCF wavelength for trends to find lucrative “sweet redeems.”

Here are recent trends for mile miners, filtered by airline.

Air France/KLM

The Flying Blue loyalty program has a dynamic award-pricing structure and has recently lowered the cost of Business Class awards on Air France to Paris and on KLM to Amsterdam to 50,000 miles each way, and in Premium Economy to 35,000 miles each way on many of its nonstop routes from the U.S.

Compare this to the New York-Paris route on American where the lowest cost award typically found is around 93,500 miles for Business Class and 72,000 miles for Premium Economy, each way; Delta’s lowest cost is typically about 230,000 for Business Class and 92,000 for Premium Economy, each way; and United is at 130,800 for Business Class and 50,000 for Premium Economy, each way. Considering that 13 of the 18 Air France routes and 11 of the 15 KLM routes we checked had low-cost free award seats over several months, this is a très bon opportunity.

When these low prices are not available you can find free award seats going for 94,000 to 141,500+ miles each way.

Stay tuned to FCF’s Sweet Redeems alerts room for the latest deals.

American Airlines

American’s trend is to offer low-cost free award seats at the last minute for close in travel on a variety of routes. Recent low-cost free award seat trends:

ASIA

Business Class routes to Asia from Dallas to Seoul, Shanghai, and Tokyo, and Los Angeles to Tokyo you can typically find a handful of days with low-cost free award seats for close in travel, outbound only.

Europe

First Class routes to London from Dallas, Los Angeles, New York, and Miami you can typically find low-cost free award seats for a handful of days for close in travel.

Business Class 86% of American routes we checked to Europe have no availability. Of the 37 routes we checked, Dallas to Madrid, Los Angeles to London, Philadelphia to Dublin, and Paris, you can typically find a handful of days with free low-cost award seats within 120 days of travel for up to four travelers.

Hawaii

No low-cost free award seats were found.

India

First Class: No low-cost free award seats from New York to Delhi.

Business Class typically has low-cost free award seats less than a handful of days, outbound only for close in travel.

South America

First Class from Miami to Buenos Aires and São Paulo typically has less than a handful of days with low-cost free award seats, outbound only for travel close in.

Business Class: Miami-to-Santiago and New York-to-Rio de Janeiro typically have a handful of days with low-cost free award seats for close in travel on the outbound flight.

South Pacific

First Class Los Angeles-to-Sydney typically has less than a handful of days with low-cost free award seats for close in travel.

Business Class: Dallas- and Los Angeles-to-Auckland typically have a handful of days with low-cost free award seats for close in travel, outbound only. We didn’t find any low-cost free award seats from Los Angeles to Sydney.

Transcon

Business Class from New York to Los Angeles and San Francisco, you can typically find low-cost free award seats for close in travel, in both directions for up to four travelers.

Cathay Pacific

First Class from Los Angeles to Hong Kong, has seen a long dry spell for free award seat availability for two travelers. Finally, Cathay has resumed showing availability for two travelers.

Cathay resumes First Class service on their New York-Hong Kong route on April 1 and is showing free award seat availability for two travelers.

Delta

If you were paying attention to FCF’s favorite Delta strategy, there were a couple of cheap routes with a few seats recently for up to four travelers from New York to Brussels, New York to Frankfurt, and New York to Zurich, which we think will grow later this year to many more routes.

Check FCF’s Sweet Redeems alerts for flash availability using this strategy.

Emirates

First Class: New York to Milan, Newark to Athens, and many routes to the Middle East we are typically finding free award seats for only one traveler.

Etihad

First Class: Washington, DC-to-Abu Dhabi typically offers free award seats for up to two travelers using American miles for departures within 30 days of travel.

Etihad brings back its A380 service from New York to Abu Dhabi on April 22, though we have yet to find any free award seats on this route. We do predict we will see some available for departures within 30 days of travel.

Lufthansa

It introduced buy miles opportunities in December 2022. Since then, we’ve seen many buy mileage promos for as low as 1.2 cents each. This opens the door to Lufthansa’s First Class upgrade strategy to Europe costing just $1,480 each way.

First Class typically has many routes with free award seat availability so stay tuned to FCF’s Sweet Redeems alert room for the latest deals.

United

Recent Business Class upgrade/low-cost free award seat availability trends:

Asia

87% of United routes we checked to Asia have no upgrade/low-cost free award seat availability. Of the 24 routes we checked, upgrade/low-cost free award seats have been found on the following routes:

  • Los Angeles- and Washington, DC-Tokyo had a handful of days for travel close in, in both directions.
  • San Francisco-Osaka had a handful of days for travel close in, outbound only.

Europe

52% of United routes we checked to Europe have no upgrade/low-cost free award seat availability. Recent trends:

  • Newark-to-Geneva and London saw a handful of days for close in travel, both directions.
  • Newark-to-Berlin and Washington, DC-to-Frankfurt, and Zurich saw a handful of days fairly close in, in both directions, for up to four travelers.
  • Denver-London, Frankfurt, and Munich; Newark-Madrid, Milan, and Munich; Washington, DC-Dublin, and Paris saw less than a handful of days, outbound only, for travel close in.

Hawaii

No low-cost free award seats were found.

South Pacific

  • San Francisco-Papeete saw a handful of days with upgrade/low-cost free award seats in both directions for travel close in.
  • San Francisco to Brisbane and Sydney had a decent number of seats for up to four travelers, in both directions, for travel up to three months out.
  • Los Angeles-Melbourne and Sydney routes saw less than a handful of days, outbound only, for travel close in.
  • San Francisco-Christchurch saw less than a handful of days, both directions, for travel close in.
  • Los Angeles-Auckland and Brisbane, San Francisco-Melbourne, and Houston-Sydney routes, we did not find any upgrade/low-cost free award seats.

Transcon

  • Newark-Los Angeles saw less than a handful of days, outbound only for travel close in.
  • Newark-San Francisco, no low-cost free award seats were found.

Award Availability

We predict airlines will continue to be stingy with discount mileage awards and Opportunity Travelers will be at a distinct advantage, especially for the first half of the year.

Economists are forecasting a more turbulent second half of the year for 2024 and we foresee more low-cost free mileage award seats as a result, given that demand for paid-by-cash Business and First Class tickets typically soften as the economy gets jittery.

Spontaneous travelers will continue to reap rewards with our upgrade two-step and close in upgrade strategies. For those who already booked tickets up to 12 months ago, this is a great way to improve your situation, i.e., upgrade.

Close in deals will be everywhere – stay in the know with FCF’s Sweet Redeems.

How to Win in 2024

First thing, read all the above! Put it on your fridge. Study, revise. Aside from that…

That’s it for our prognostications. Now let’s get 2024 off to a flying start with some actual travel. What’s the first destination on your bucket list? If you can’t find a premium cabin deal there, go to number two, then three, and so on. By the way, The longer your bucket list, the better your odds of winning. Because after all, there are more than just a few great places in the world to visit, right?

See you up front.

And you can stay there too - with the help of FCF’s 2024 intel
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