FCF’s Europe Guide to Gouge- and No-Gouge Routes

June 2021
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Strap yourself in for some scary price differences.

FCF’s motto is to book while the booking is good. We hate telling you that you could have purchased flight X last month at half the price it is now. It’s much better to stay ahead of the curve.

But we think it’s always good to be reminded because it makes for better “upgrade mindset thinking” (where upgrade means flying cheaper and/or in more comfort).

Most leisure travelers book around 90 days in advance. But hey, guess when the fares are often through the roof? For travel 90 days out. To get you motivated to fly, airlines have lower fares 60 days out, higher for 90 days out, and if you are an advance planner, at 120 days out, they’re just plain gouging, for those that feel the need to lock in very far in advance. Security is often costly. See more on that here.

Ah, and the cost of loyalty. If you’re locked into one airline, you have a high probability of really getting stung, and the airlines know it.

Delta.com Charges Half Price for
Business Class Flights on Virgin. Say What?

Delta clearly thinks that flying on Delta’s own aircraft is worth significantly more than flying on their partner Virgin Atlantic’s aircraft. So Delta.com is selling seats on Delta flights for $4,782 round-trip, and selling Virgin’s flights for $1,982 round-trip. Is the difference in product that much better?! Not really.

Pre-Jump Prices

Most fares jump for travel in October and beyond. Here are the best European fares we found for travel in July, August and September.

Oneworld Alliance Non-Stop

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STAR Alliance Non-Stop

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Here are the routes where you won’t find any deals.

Oneworld Alliance Non-Stop

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SkyTeam Alliance Non-Stop

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STAR Alliance Non-Stop

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Here are the routes where you can find a deal on some airlines, or if you’re willing to make a stop:

The Price of Loyalty

Here are some comparison prices for identical routes:

For the very same nonstop route, both with lie-flat seats, American’s fare is $1,864 while booking with Delta will cost you $1,250 more ($3,114). If it’s comparing apples with apples, you’d think one must taste waaaaay better, but that’s not really the case.

A $4,200 Difference for the Same Route?

Again, for the same nonstop route, and both with lie-flat seats, British Airways’ fare is $2,590, while booking with American will cost you $4,268 more, or $6,858. That’s a massive price difference for the same exact route.

Another identical route (New York-Milan): Alitalia’s fare is $2,124 while Delta will cost you $975 more. Or are you content to stay loyal to one airline and book whatever it gives you? From our perspective, that doesn’t make sense. After all, you’re the one being loyal and the airline is just taking advantage of that.

Feel like you’re stuck with an airline when all the other kids are out playing?

If you’re feeling lucky, you could roll the dice with Delta. In the example below you have just a 3% chance of getting the lowest fare in July. Delta is notorious for offering one day or only a handful of days a month with a teaser fare and the rest of the month you’ll pay big. In the example below, you pay $1,150 to $9,109 more depending on your level of flexibility.

Final Thoughts and Recommendations

  • Pay cash now when fares are $1,800 to $2,500, more or less. With the free change policy, it can only get better.
  • Use your miles for fares in the $4,000+ range.
  • If you’re somewhere in the middle, take a look at our report on when to use miles or cash.
  • High holiday fares took the year off in 2020. We are starting to see them again, but because they’re high, now is not the time to buy them.
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