FirstClassFlyer

18 Things You Can Do to Increase Your Odds of Winning The Upgrade Game.

All indications lead me to think that 2015 will be a good year for the strategic and somewhat flexible premium traveler, meaning those who understand the new airfare trends, are on top of lucrative loyalty-currency deals, and know where the upgrade availability is.

Premium Domestic Travel in 2015

First Class fares have fallen far and will continue to do so on more routes this year. While coach fares aren’t getting any lower—in fact, the fees now imposed on coach fares have increased so much that the difference between coach and First is at an all-time low. With lower First Class fares come more seats sold in advance, leaving fewer freebies, so…

1. Forget About Elite Upgrade Roulette:

Except on short-haul routes if you’re a top-tier elite. Why? Delta and United no longer allow elite upgrades on premium transcon flights, where they mattered most as fares are higher. Confirm a First Class ticket long before departure on a discounted fare or mileage upgrade: Remember the extra fees that come with coach fares and the pain will be less. If you do the math, you’ll see that the price is often close to a free upgrade.

2. Master Booking Transcons:

Elite Upgrades: Still a potentially good option on American, as it offers 260 Business Class seats daily each-way on the LAX-JFK route, 100 on SFO-JFK. These are not unlimited free upgrades, but inventory controlled via AA’s 500-mile upgrade certificates. That said, I wouldn’t begin to attempt this without a backup plan, in this case using miles for a free ticket on American or United, both of which usually have great close-in availability. In that case, just eat the change fee for your coach class booking if the upgrade doesn’t come through and use the remaining value for future travel. This is what I call the Upgrade Two-Step.

3. Mileage Upgrades:

Don’t have the nerve to get close to departure without knowing which seat you’re in? This is when it pays to use miles for an upgrade since fares for the transcon route on the three major U.S. carriers are still $1,600 to $4,000.

Premium Travel to Asia & Europe in 2015

EasyUp Business Class fares will likely expand because airlines are getting more aggressive than ever at poaching elites from competitors. 2015 will be the great Loyalty-Trap Exodus. While loyalty has been dead for years, it really took until 2014 for most elites to start to see it; this year the awareness will reach critical mass. So think about the following as you look at new carriers:

4. Knowing How to Extend a Ticketing Deadline is KEY:

The best fares often don’t last long, so you have to be ready to pull the trigger—perhaps holding multiple reservations—then figure out which one of the great fares you want to pay for.

5. Forget Destination Lock-In:

Unless money is no object, consider going to a low-fare destination and making a connection. I’m not saying fly to Barcelona instead of Bangkok, but I am saying fly to Paris via Madrid or a number of other low-fare cities.

6. Know the Low-Fare U.S. Cities:

My home airport is Monterey, CA. But the best deals are often from SFO and LAX. The cost of that last leg to and from Monterey is often disproportionately high. So I sometimes take a car to SFO or fly to LAX to knock down the price, perhaps using just 9,000 BA miles on an AA flight for the short MRY-LAX segment. The same holds for any number of second-tier U.S. airports.

7. Pragmatism, Not Brand

Only willing to fly one airline or alliance? International carriers defend their home city with a vengeance. Fly to London on BA, Paris on Air France, or Frankfurt on Lufthansa and you will pay dearly. Just look at what Air France is charging First Class travelers to its hub, Paris. There are less expensive ways of getting there.

Loyalty Program Miles & Points in 2015

I didn’t say loyalty programs are bad—they can be amazing —it’s just that loyalty to an Airline Loyalty Program is no longer the best option for most. In 2015, award space is going to get tighter, in part because the airlines are getting more creative at dumping inventory, and they prefer to generate cash sales rather than mileage redemptions.

8. Consider Mileage Upgrades

This one often separates those who are looking to fly for free versus those looking for better routings and willing to shell out a bit for the ride. American and United offer up to 2,500% more seats for upgrades than they do for free tickets. Yes, availability is harder to check as in some cases (American) you have to call (you can search United online). Read this report here and here for more on availability of upgrades than free awards.

9. Increase Your Flexibility

Meaning fly when and where there is availability. Most people find a deal on a cruise, resort, or tour and only then consider flights. Bad idea, unless money is no object. If you really want to score the best seats for less using miles, plan two or three destinations and two or three time-frames, and you’ll see where the values are—before you book anything.

10. Fall Out of Love

Breaking up is hard to do, but deeply-in-love loyalists will be the big losers in 2015. Do not be married to one airline and do not earn all your miles in one mileage program. Access different airlines via Multi-Airline Credit Cards (special feature on that coming next month). Maintain a diversified travel asset portfolio to reduce the impact of award-seat challenges.

11. Watch Our Award Availability Calendars

These “Treasure Maps” appear in each issue as “The Suite Spot,” “The Route Scout,” and “The FCF Worldwide Mileage-Seat Locater.” Also, check our newsroom often for a volume of “Sweet Redeems.” These are the game changers.

12. Leverage the Middle Eastern Airline Invasion

Consider using miles for travel on airlines such as Emirates or Etihad Airways, because they are expanding rapidly in the U.S. and abroad and thus have more availability, even in First Class. Plus, both Dubai and Abu Dhabi are great places to make a connection to Africa, India and Southwest and Southeast Asia.

13. Leverage One-Way Awards

It’s another aspect of being flexible. Book a different airline for each leg—look to your preferred carrier’s partners first—or a different quality seat; perhaps a lie-flat on an overnight flight and an angled one home on a daylight run.

14. Put Asian Carriers on Your Asia Bucket List

All Nippon, Cathay Pacific, and Asiana often have decent award space in First Class, and FCF will help you find it. So you’re way ahead of the pack.

General 2015 Forecast

Airlines are coming up with more gimmicks to sell more premium cabin seats. Programs like last-minute “seat upgrade auctions” actually deprive us of opportunities to redeem miles, a further dilution of elite benefits, as they let everyone into the game. More and more major international carriers are offering upgrade auctions, and it’s only a matter of time before U.S. carriers get into this game. Here are some ways to defend yourself.

15. Remember the Good Search Tools:

Use fare-search tools like Kayak’s +/- three-day tool or ITA’s multi-city and date search options to find heavily discounted routes and dates; often one little item in a fare rule—which you can’t quickly see in single-date search tool—will be exposed in a “fare matrix.”

16. More Merger Enticements

Look for American and US Airways to throw out more lures in 2015, that they will offer extra miles on paid Business and First Class tickets. This last deal wasn’t a big one, but it captured headlines and things like this will lead some fliers to AA who are embittered by Delta and United loyalty devaluations.

17. Leverage Special Mileage Awards

Look for Flying Blue (Air Europa, Air France, and KLM) and Miles & More (Lufthansa) mileage programs to continue discounted Business Class mileage awards in 2015. Our advice: Bank points with credit cards that partner with these carriers (Amex Rewards, Citi Thankyou, and Starwood) so you’re ready.

18. Keep an Eye Out for FCF Alerts

We post them to give you a leg up on special fares (domestic and international) originating in North America and Europe, with the fine print and detailed listings of the valid departure and destination cities, seasonal restrictions, and fare codes. You could fly round-trip Los Angeles-Europe in Business Class starting at $1,375; Dallas-Asia for $1,989; San Francisco-Deep South America for $2,168, Europe-New York for €1,322; Europe-Asia for €1,536; Canada-Europe for CA$2,524; and Canada-Asia for CA$2,964—and most recently, Business Class Chicago-Zurich for $1,384.

Final Thoughts

Airlines are making increasingly bigger investments in technology, which will accelerate changes in airfares, loyalty programs, and the fine print. What worked for the premium traveler last month may not next month. Don’t get set in your upgrade ways. Rather, be optimistic and opportunistic: When one upgrade door closes, another usually opens.