How Japan Airlines and Kaizen Can Get You a $23,300 First Class Ticket to Tokyo for $3,221 (or 160,000 Miles)

September 2023
Read Offline

Why 13 is your magic number to getting $23,300 First Class seats for Fuji-sized savings in cash or by using Alaska or American miles; or Amex, Capital One, Chase, or Citi Points

Listen up spontaneous, bags-packed flyers. You too, Asia-bound ticket holders flying in Business Class, Premium Economy, and even — heaven forbid — coach. Your magic number is 13. That’s the number of days we’re now constantly seeing (let’s call it a trend!) prior to departure when availability raises its hand and calls your name. Screams it, actually.

First up, let’s talk to ticket holders.

Kaizen: Japanese for Iterative Improvement

Toyota, McDonald’s, Canon, FedEx, and Wal-Mart all use the concept of kaizen, which means “continuous improvement.” And so can you, Alice from Alameda holding a ticket in hand. It’s all about making continuous incremental changes for the better, which absolutely applies to our travel mindset here.

For ticket holders, it means getting a better ticket, maybe in a better cabin, or at a better flight time, or on a better airline, on a better day, and even a better cabin for a MUCH better price.

It’s really another way of describing FCF’s TUM: The Upgrade Mindset, our philosophy of always looking to improve your travel situation, which is how we define “upgrade.”

For The Relentless Upgrader

You might be amazed about the last-minute opportunities that show up close to departure. We recently wrote about Anne who had a Premium Economy ticket in her hand for a trip to Australia. The concept is the same for Alice now. She had been looking at Business Class from Dallas to Tokyo, however tickets were in the $6,000+ R/T range. First Class was $23,300, so it was definitely out of the question for budget-conscious Alice. For the record, she went with the Premium Economy ticket, which cost her $3,657 on American.

And then: KAIZEN KAPOW!

In the week before departure, American Airlines opened up some Japan AIrline’s mileage award seats in First Class to Tokyo priced at 80,000 miles one-way. Then Alice spotted a return flight in First Class for 80,000 miles as well. No, I am not making this up. She canceled the Premium Economy ticket (she can use that value within 12 months) and jumped on the kaizen express, er, the First Class round-trip flight to Tokyo for a total cost of 160,000 miles.

Oh by the way, Alice didn’t have any miles when she started, she just knew about FCF’s Buy Miles to Fly in Style strategy. More on how this got her that $23,300 for $3,221 in a minute.

Just remember this: Airlines don’t want empty seats, so the closer the deadline looms — i.e., the day the plane takes off — the more nervous they get, and the more likely they are to offer surplus seats for big discounts.

For the Spontaneous Sprinter

Are you in the starting position at the front door like Usain Bolt, ready to spring off the starting blocks to grab a great deal? Knowing when and where to find Japan Airlines seats puts you ahead of the competition. There are a lot of ambitious flyers out there (many of them are our readers!) looking to “kaizen” their situations. So, what you want to know is how many days out from departure Japan Airlines opens up availability, which brings us back to the magic number: 13.

FCF’S High-Level Partner Comparison Summary

Here’s our partner award availability comparison summary, comparing mileage cost, taxes, and transfer partners for five of Japan Airlines partners. As you can see, they all offer different benefits, so determine what best fits your particular situation.

[table_opt id="6852" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

We left out Japan Airlines partners Air France, Iberia, and Qatar Airways because they didn’t have any availability in First Class at a low cost, so don’t waste your time looking.

FCF’S Close in First Class Award Availability Trend Survey

Our team studied First Class availability within 45 days of departure for one to four seats. We discovered that Japan Airlines usually only started to release First Class mileage award seats up to 13 days prior to a flight’s departure date.

Because these trends are forever changing, be sure to check in advance to see how things are going.

First Class Trend #1:
Tokyo To/From Dallas

See below for the frequency (%) of days inside of 13 days prior to departure with cheap First Class awards FCF recently discovered

[table_opt id="6853" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

First Class Trend #2: Tokyo To/From San Francisco

See below for the frequency (%) of days inside of 13 days prior to departure with cheap First Class awards FCF recently discovered

[table_opt id="6854" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

New York and Los Angeles to/from Tokyo have very limited award-seat availability outbound. If you were persistent, you could find a few days with two+ award seats outbound using American or Cathay Pacific (Amex transfer partner). On the return, however, we have not seen any available award seats.

FCF’S Close in First Class Award Availability Observations

Based on our recent research, which is likely to change, use the following concepts to maximize your travel kaizen:

TO Tokyo

  • San Francisco to Tokyo typically offers the best award-seat availability with Dallas being second best. Keep in mind our Skipping Stones Reports if you don’t live in a hub with availability. Check with the airlines to add a connecting flight from the U.S. hub city coming and/or going from any of Oneworld’s (American or Alaska) U.S. departure cities based on availability or buy a positioning flight.
  • The best award-seat availability exists within 13 days of departure from Dallas and San Francisco.
  • From San Francisco, it’s best to use Alaska, British Airways, or Cathay Pacific for four or more travelers, as American typically had only two or fewer seats.
  • Best to find award-seat availability to Tokyo from San Francisco for travel Monday through Wednesday.
  • Best to find award-seat availability to Tokyo from Los Angeles for travel on Mondays and sometimes Wednesdays.

FROM Tokyo

  • To Dallas typically offers the best award-seat availability with San Francisco being the second best. Keep in mind our Skipping Stones Report. Check with the airlines to add a connecting flight from the U.S. hub city coming and/or going from any of Oneworld’s (American or Alaska) U.S. departure cities based on availability or buy a positioning flight.
  • Most award-seat availability found was for one seat, though we have seen up to three seats.
  • Award-seat availability can typically be found within six days of departure from Tokyo to Dallas and within three days of departure to San Francisco with Friday being the most likely day for travel.
  • Odds of finding award-seat availability from Tokyo to Los Angeles or New York are slim.

No Miles? No Problem!

There are two ways to get on a Japan Airlines flight without any miles. You can either buy miles and book through a partner airline, or transfer points to miles with a JAL partner airline.

The buying option can be lucrative. Look for sales through Japan Airlines’ partners: Alaska Airlines at around 1.8 cents per mile, American Airlines at around 2.4 cents, or British Airways and Cathay Pacific, which you can get through Amex at 2.5 cents a mile. Let’s look at how these buy-miles opportunities can really fly.

The $23,300 First Class Japan Airlines Ticket
With Alaska Airline Miles
for $3,221 R/T

Alaska Airlines usually has an everyday price of 3 cents per mile, however, they frequently offer mileage purchase bonuses and discount promotions for as low as 1.8 cents each.

So, given the mileage cost of 170,000 miles r/t for this journey, that amounts to a First Class flight to Tokyo for $1,610 each way. There are massive savings on the normal published fares as the chart below reveals. Not enough miles for a round-trip ticket? Follow our strategy here for the purchase limit workaround.

[table_opt id="6855" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

The $23,300 First Class Japan Airlines Ticket
With American Airlines Miles
for $1,981 Each Way

It’s a similar equation with American Airlines. Their everyday price is 2.8 cents per mile. However, with their frequently offered mileage purchase discount promotion you can buy them for as low as 2.4 cents each (for up to 150,000 per year, plus any bonuses). That gives you a First Class flight to Tokyo for $1,981 each way. Follow our strategy here for the purchase limit workaround. Let’s crunch the numbers:

[table_opt id="6856" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

What About Amex Points?

If you don’t have enough points, you can buy them from Amex and transfer them to partners British Airways and Cathay Pacific to redeem them for that Japan Airlines First Class ticket. It costs a little more than if you go through American Airlines, but the savings are still great: 71% to 76% off the normal fare. See below.

The $23,300 First Class Japan Airlines Ticket With Cathay Pacific Airline Miles for $3,254 Each Way

With Cathay Pacific you can buy up to 500,000 Amex Rewards points per year and they only cost 2.5¢ each. Given the baseline First Class fare from Dallas to Tokyo is often $23,300 to $25,200, and that you can buy 240,000 Amex Rewards Points and transfer to Cathay Pacific for about $6,508 (including taxes of about $508) round-trip, you’d end up saving up to $16,792, or 72%. Something to consider if awards are not available through the other options and if Cathay Pacific is the only airline with First Class availability.

[table_opt id="6857" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

The $22,500 First Class Japan Airlines Ticket With British Airways Miles For $2,829 Each Way

With British Airways you can buy up to 500,000 Amex Rewards points per year and they only cost 2.5¢ each. Also, given the baseline First Class fare from San Francisco to Tokyo is often $22,500 to $26,000, and that you can buy 206,000 Amex Rewards Points and transfer to British Airways for about $5,659 (including taxes of about $509) round-trip, you’d end up saving up to $16,841, or 75%.

[table_opt id="6858" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

Don't want to buy miles, but have transferable points?
Here are the Japan Airlines partner airlines points transfer options:

[table_opt id="6859" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="default" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]

Fuji-sized savings to Tokyo in First

Connecting and Positioning Flights

“Okay, Bennett, you’re showing me that Dallas and San Francisco departures are the most lucrative, but I live in Boise.” Well, the great news for you, Alice, is that there are two smart ways to connect you to great deals: free award connecting flights, which is the best, or positioning flights.

Of course, by its nature, the kaizen upgrade strategy isn’t perfect. But it’s another upgrade tool you’ll want to have in your travel belt. If you can use it just once in a while, you’ll more than cover a whole bunch of future trips. And congrats to you, spontaneous First Class travelers and ticketholders looking to level up.

See you up front.

[["Booking JAL Flights With:","Pro","Con"],["Japan Miles","Best availability and lowest cost if you have the miles.","No points transfer partners except Starwood and not at a good ratio."],["Alaska Miles","Less award availability than Japan Airlines, but more than British Airways. Low taxes at about $80 round-trip. The cheapest buy miles option at 1.8 cents each, when on sale.","No major transfer partners."],["American Miles","You can buy miles directly from the airline at 2.4 cents each when on sale versus British Airways and Cathay via Amex. Low taxes at about $50 round-trip. Transfer partners with Citi.","Fewer days with seats for 3+ travelers when compared to Alaska, British Airways, and Cathay Pacific."],["British Airways Miles","Award seat availability up to four seats. Transfer partners with Amex, Capital One, and Chase. Often has a 30% or higher transfer bonus with Amex.","Fewer days with award seat availability. Taxes are about $500 round-trip."],["Cathay Pacific Miles","Award seat availability up to four seats. Transfer partners with Amex, Capital One, and Citi.","Award cost is higher than Japan, Alaska, and American and will be even higher in October with the devaluation. Award taxes are about $500 round-trip."]]
[["Japan Airline Partner","Route","1+ Seat","2+ Seats","3+ Seats","4+ Seats"],["\n\nAlaska","Outbound:","<strong>27%</strong>","<strong>11%</strong>","5%","\n\n1%"],["#rowspan#","Return:","<strong>14%</strong>","4%","1%","#rowspan#"],["\n\nAmerican","Outbound:","<strong>31%</strong>","<strong>13%</strong>","5%","0%"],["#rowspan#","Return:","<strong>19%</strong>","6%","\n\n3%","\n\n1%"],["\n\nBritish Airways","Outbound:","<strong>19%</strong>","7%","#rowspan#","#rowspan#"],["#rowspan#","Return:","6%","1%","0%","\n\n0%"],["\n\nCathay Pacific","Outbound:","<strong>31%</strong>","<strong>14%</strong>","5%","#rowspan#"],["#rowspan#","Return:","<strong>15%</strong>","5%","2%","1%"]]
[["Japan Airline Partner","Route","1+ Seat","2+ Seats","3+ Seats","4+ Seats"],["\n\nAlaska","Outbound:","<strong>15%</strong>","8%","5%","3%"],["#rowspan#","Return:","8%","3%","0%","0%"],["\n\nAmerican","Outbound:","<strong>21%</strong>","<strong>10%</strong>","\n\n\n\n3%","\n\n1%"],["#rowspan#","Return:","9%","\n\n6%","#rowspan#","#rowspan#"],["\n\nBritish Airways","Outbound:","<strong>12%</strong>","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","3%"],["#rowspan#","Return:","3%","1%","0%","0%"],["\n\nCathay Pacific","Outbound:","<strong>15%</strong>","7%","4%","3%"],["#rowspan#","Return:","8%","5%","2%","2%"]]
[["Operating Carrier","Between Tokyo and:","Buy Miles From","Mileage Cost","Approx. Cost to Buy Miles\nWhen on Sale for\n1.8\u00a2 Each Including Taxes","Normal Published Fare","Savings","#colspan#"],["\n\n\n\nJapan","Dallas","\n\n\n\nAlaska","200,000","$3,775","$23,300","$19,525","84%"],["#rowspan#","Los Angeles*","#rowspan#","170,000","$3,221","$22,600","$19,379","86%"],["#rowspan#","New York","#rowspan#","200,000","$3,775","$23,100","$19,325","84%"],["#rowspan#","San Francisco**","#rowspan#","170,000","$3,221","$22,500","$19,279","86%"]]
<small>*Service through October 28 and resumes March 31, 2024. **Service through October 28 and resumes January 9, 2024.</small>
[["\nOperating Carrier","\nBetween Tokyo and:","\nBuy Miles From","\nMileage Cost","Cost to Buy Miles\nWhen on Sale for\n2.4\u00a2 Each Including Taxes","\nNormal Published Fare","\nSavings","#colspan#"],["\n\n\n\n\nJapan","Dallas","\n\n\n\n\nAmerican","\n\n\n\n\n160,000","\n\n\n\n\n$3,963","$23,300","$19,337","83%"],["#rowspan#","Los Angeles*","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$22,600","$18,637","82%"],["#rowspan#","New York","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$23,100","$19,137","83%"],["#rowspan#","San Francisco**","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$22,500","$18,537","82%"]]
<small> *Service through October 28, resumes March 31, 2024. **Service through October 28, resumes January 9, 2024. </small>
[["Operating Carrier","Between Tokyo and:","Buy Points From","Mileage Cost","Cost to Buy Points for 2.5\u00a2 Each","Normal Published Fare","Savings","#colspan#"],["\n\n\n\n\nJapan","Dallas","\n\n\n\n\nAmex then Transfer to Cathay Pacific","\n\n\n\n\n240,000","\n\n\n\n\n$6,508","$23,300","$16,792","72%"],["#rowspan#","Los Angeles*","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$22,600","$16,092","71%"],["#rowspan#","New York","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$23,100","$16,592","72%"],["#rowspan#","San Francisco**","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$22,500","$15,992","71%"]]
<small> *Service through October 28, resumes March 31, 2024. **Service through October 28, resumes January 9, 2024. </small>
[["Operating Carrier","Between Tokyo and:","Buy Miles From","Mileage Cost","Cost to Buy Points for 2.5\u00a2 Each","Normal Published Fare","Savings","#colspan#"],["\n\n\n\n\nJapan","Dallas","\n\n\n\n\nAmex then Transfer to British Airways","247,500","$6,697","$23,300","$16,604","71%"],["#rowspan#","Los Angeles*","#rowspan#","\n\n\n\n206,000","\n\n\n\n$5,659","$22,600","$16,941","75%"],["#rowspan#","New York","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$23,100","$17,441","76%"],["#rowspan#","San Francisco**","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$22,500","$16,841","75%"]]
<small> *Service through October 28, resumes March 31, 2024. **Service through October 28, resumes January 9, 2024. </small>
[["Mileage Program","Japan","Alaska","American","British Airways","Cathay Pacific"],["Points Transfer Partner","N/A","N/A","Citi","Amex, Capital One, Chase","Amex, Capital One, Citi"]]