It’s survival of the smartest: Ten sure-fire ways to come out on top

Here’s your mantra for 2006: shrinking supply, increasing demand. Say it with me: shrinking supply, increasing demand; shrinking supply, increasing demand; shrinking supply, increasing demand. Okay, now you’re ready to face the airlines and not get stuck with the leftover fares and seats. Here are ten ways you can stay ahead of your fellow travelers, who are competing for the same seats.

Know where the new seats are. Airline after airline is rolling out new seats, especially in Business Class. A couple of years from now, the mantra may be “plenty of seats, take your pick.” But for now, the key to getting the best value for the buck is to keep track of which airline is upgrading and on which routes, since a Business Class rollout often takes a few years.

If you’re traveling from St. Louis to Paris with Air France and have a number of connection gateways to choose from, you’ll want to fly via Philadelphia rather than Washington, D.C., because the Philadelphia–Paris route has new A340s fitted with the new Business Class seats. Likewise, flying from Dallas to Tokyo with Japan Airlines, you’ll want to connect via Los Angeles rather than Chicago to catch the airline’s new Business Class seats. The best ways to find out routes with the best seats are First Class Flyer and the airlines’ own websites.

Keep track of new routes. When an airline starts service, there are almost always award and mileage seats up for grabs. Keep track of new routes through the airlines’ frequent flyer program newsletters and OAG (www.frequentflyer.oag.com).

Know the right time to book travel. The answer: Now! Don’t wait. Get the ticket booked and then, if a fare war erupts, see if you can cancel (many Business Class fares give you this out, or charge a nominal fee for allowing cancelation later) and rebook. If you know your travel schedule well in advance, take advantage of the fact that most airlines release mileage seats 330 days before the departure date.

Know your options. Review your mileage and alliance partners before making plans. Starwood has 30+ partners; Amex Membership Rewards, 14; American, via its Oneworld Alliance, 8, and another 12 via non-alliance partnerships. This is key information. Remember that you’re competing against multitudes around the world when looking for mileage seats. I often find seats on partner airlines when the primary carrier has nada.

[aside headline="MAXjet Already Expanding" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]

The low-fare all-Business Class airline, which began New York (JFK)–London (Stansted) service on Nov. 1 (more in Dec. FCF), is adding service from Washington Dulles to Stansted in late Feb., plans call for five flights weekly. In mid-Feb., the carrier will up New York Stansted flights from six times weekly to daily with the addition of a Saturday flight. Fares begin at just $679 each way. In Feb., Max Jet will also introduce a Customer Appreciation Program—don’t call it a loyalty program, says the carrier. Customers who have ‘banked’ enough miles will be able to cash them in for a free flight. There will be no blackout dates, no Saturday-night stay requirement or any of the other limitations often attached to award travel. Existing customers will get credit for flights taken since Nov. 1. Visit www.maxjet.com or call (888) 435-9629 for details.

Crystal’s Clear Offer

The cruise line is offering reduced Business Class upgrades ($1,099 to $1,299 each way, depending on departure city) with any 2006 Mediterranean, Baltic, Northern Europe, or trans-Atlantic cruise booked by Mar. 31. Cruise fares start at $1,995 per person, double occupancy. Available from the following cities (subject to space availability): New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. (Dulles) for $1,099; Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Detroit and Miami for $1,199; and Los Angeles, Denver, San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, Phoenix and Seattle for $1,299.

[/aside]

Know your aircraft. If you have to be waitlisted for a flight, choose one using an aircraft with the most Business Class seats. Lufthansa, for example, offers both B747 and A330 service from New York to Frankfurt. The best option is the 747 because it has 52% more Business Class seats.

Take a different route. I often find better fares by taking the indirect route. Yes, it takes more time, and I know time is money. If you’ve got the time, you can save the money. If you’re flying New York–Frankfurt on short notice, for example, your round-trip Business Class fare will be in the $6,000+ range; why not book New York–Rome at $3,350 and buy a separate Rome–Frankfurt ticket for substantial savings?

Know how to work mileage chart discrepancies. One of my favorite topics. Sometimes the airline operating a flight will charge one rate for mileage award tickets, while one of its partner carriers will charge a different rate—for the exact same flight and class of service. Example: Book Business Class round-trip New York–London on British Airways, and BA will charge you 100,000 miles; book the same seat on the same flight through BA’s partner Cathay Pacific, and pay only 60,000! Amex Starwood credit card holders are best positioned to take advantage of these discrepancies, since you can dump miles into either of the two airlines’ mileage programs. Know your options, and take advantage of the discrepancies.

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Old-school thinking taught us to build miles in one airline loyalty program. That’s history. Today the name of the game is diversification. Optimally, earn miles in multiple programs, in different alliances. Then you won’t have to take only what you can get.

Don’t rely on your elite status card for domestic First or Business Class. If flying domestic First Class is a must, think twice about relying on elite status upgrades to make it happen with any consistency; the odds are not in your favor, as they were in years past. The strategy now is to hedge your bet with a second booking on your second- choice carrier, with a heavily discounted First Class fare. This is your fallback if the elite upgrade doesn’t get confirmed. Cancel the ticket you don’t end up using, and whatever it cost—minus your change fee, $100 at the most—is yours for future travel.

Be flexible. Two legs are better than one, three legs are better than two, and so on. Learn to combine the points above and you’ll come out of 2006 on top.

Happy New Year and I’ll see you up front.