Our Tactical Mileage Prediction Came True to Hawaii: Better Hula Fast
In our January “2020 Vision” report, which looked at the year ahead, we said…
FCF predicts that in 2020 we will see a lot more tactical Business Class mileage award flash sales on U.S. airlines.
We’re very glad to share that it’s already happening with opportunities to Hawaii dropping like ripe pineapples on American Airlines.
Despite our predictions, it still comes as a surprise for two reasons. First, it’s notoriously difficult to find low-cost award space to Hawaii. Second, American earned the ire of travelers when it started charging any price it wanted. Out went the published pricing charts and any chance of scoring “saver” awards.
Think about this number for a second: 960,000. That, incredibly, was the number of miles American was charging for a Business Class round-trip between Sydney and Los Angeles back in January. Simply outrageous.
But there is an upside to the madness. What the airline taketh away, they can also giveth.
And they have, with a sudden sporadic outpouring of low-mileage Business Class offerings to Hawaii with rates lower than in 2018.
Best in Years:
56K Round Trip in Biz to Hawaii
American flyers should note the rollercoaster that this route has gone on.
In 2018, 80,000 miles round-trip was the lowest saver award rate.
In 2019, 110,000 miles was the lowest saver award rate. The trend was not promising.
Yet now in 2020, the lowest rate is quietly down to just 56,000 miles round-trip; that’s a 54,000 mile fall in just a year, and 24,000 fewer than 2018. That’s only 5,500 miles more than what the airline was charging for economy class in 2019.
New cheap flash mileage deals are also only available on the Los Angeles-Hawaii (Honolulu, Maui, Kaui, and Kona) routes (details here and here), not with other non-stops such as Dallas or Phoenix—yet. So get to LA and get ‘em while they’re hot.
American's New 2020 Biz Class Mileage Cost to Hawaii
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Now we can’t say the 28K-mile one-way will be available every day, but we did find two-seat availability on the Maui route 15 days out of 30 in April. Not bad.
Discount-Level Happiness Is Relative
These new cheap flash mileage deals do have limited date availability. Still, these flash one-way rates of 28,000 miles aren’t just available once a year. You can consistently find them four-eight times per month (at time of writing April even had 15 days with two-seats) and for up to four months of travel in 2020. Don’t look at the glass as half empty, but instead as half full, as cheap flash mileage deals are always better a few months out of the year than nothing.
What If You’re Not Flexible?
If you want more options for travel dates, you often only have to pay a bit more. FCF found one-way awards ranging between 30,000 to 40,000 miles, which are still OK, and way lower than in 2019, and the same or lower rates than 2018.
Or, if you only find the new 28,000 one-way price for your departure, and nothing for your return, you could always buy a one-way ticket from Hawaii or vice versa.
How to Search For Mileage Award Space
Most people search for availability depending on the number of people traveling. We don’t. We search for one seat, then search for a second seat. Why? Because when you search for two seats, you won’t see the available one-seat opportunities.
Also, many people search for availability round-trip. We don’t. We search for seats one-way, because if the return is not available you could always buy a one-way ticket coming back.
For more details go here.
No Round-trip Mileage Award Space to the Same Island?
What if you can’t find good mileage award space round-trip to the same island? Then grab a seat in premium class to one island, for example from LA to Kona, and book the return ticket from another island, for example from Maui to LA, and just buy a cheap ticket from Kona to Maui.
If You Don’t Have AA Miles,
But Do Have Credit Card Points
Amex Rewards and Citi ThankYou Points: Cathay Pacific has the lowest partner mileage cost and is based on the distance flown. From Los Angeles to Hawaii, the cost is 60,000 miles round-trip.
Chase Rewards Points: British Airways also uses a flight distance chart. From Los Angeles to Hawaii, the cost is 77,500 miles round-trip.
Award Mileage Hold With American
If you want to grab this opportunity but haven’t sorted out your dates, kid’s vacation times, hotel bookings and the like, you can hold the award seat for five days at no charge. You can also nab more than one date, and then cancel the ones you don’t need–again, there’s no charge for the mileage award hold.
For more details go here.
Not Based in LA?
At this point, it appears that connecting flights to Los Angeles offer less award space than the non-stop LAX to Hawaii. So you could buy a second ticket with cash to connect in LAX.