Ambitious premium travelers have much to hope for.
First of all, FCF has a new crystal ball. After all, our last one missed the lockdowns! So we got rid of that one and procured a new beauty, featuring high-quality bohemia crystal from the Czech Republic. Now we’re ready to see those premium travel trends clearly in 2021.
Hindsight is 2020. Foresight is 2021.
2020 was not only a tough year to predict, but also a tough year for many to live through. I know you’ve probably thought that a million times over the last year. As a glass-half-full kinda guy, I’m feeling optimistic about 2021 as many low- or no-lockdown U.S. states and countries around the world are flourishing and as the premium travel opportunities are starting to roll in all around us.
If there’s one thing that confinement does, it reminds us of the power of travel. Travel is good for us on every level, especially the soul. That’s why I’m happy to report that it’s picking up again. There were about 500,000 U.S. travelers each day back in June — up from the low on April 14 of just 87,534 — and now that figure is regularly reaching over the million-person mark per day. It’s only about half of what it was last year, but it’s steadily growing.
2020 Recap
(Do We Have To?!)
What Didn’t Surprise Us
American, Delta, and United were quick to offer lots of premium award space when lockdown hit. Supply, meet demand. However, the cynics might say it’s easy to look generous when planes are empty.
Oneworld First Class fares to Europe flew low enough to scrape Big Ben on the way in. A welcoming, although not a surprising outcome given the circumstances.
Change fees were eliminated on American, Delta, and United, as well as many others, altering how speculative ambitious travelers are willing to be. Whoo-hoo.
What Did Surprise Us
Delta was as quick to take away award space as it was to give it out. C’mon guys.
There were tax breaks seemingly everywhere. Not the IRS, we’re talking airline taxes. More here about that. And while we’re talking about it, a bleedin’ smack across the north and south for British Airways, which hasn’t reduced taxes.
Fare Trends
In 2020 we locked our eyes and computer mice on these happy travel trends.
Coast to coast with the most (actually, the least): transcontinental fares as low as $797 here, here, and here.
Caribbean canoodling: Business Class fares as low as $261 From Miami to San Juan, Puerto Rico, and countless others in the $500 range. More on current low Caribbean fares here.
Flights and fares heading south: Business Class flash fares to South America as low as $1,017 from Chicago to Rio de Janeiro and from all over in the $1,500 to $1,700 range.
Euro bingo: Business Class flash fares to Europe as low as $1,727, and First Class flash fares to Europe as low as $2,953.
Asia/Canada cancan: Business Class flash fares to Asia from Canada as low as $1,701 and $2,390 from the East Coast.
Safari suiters: Business Class flash fares to Africa as low as $1,808.
2020 Miles Trends
Delta the “Care Less” Airline.
At 360,000 miles to Europe, Delta doesn’t seem to care if you can get an award seat or not. We recently checked 12 Delta routes to Asia and none had availability for less than 360,000 miles round-trip. In April, award space was wide open at discount levels for routes we checked to Europe, and in June most of the European routes still showed space. In September, FCF surveyed 34 international nonstop routes on Delta and found that only seven had a decent amount of low-cost award space. If you play it smart, take advantage of domestic mileage award costs that have been low for short-haul destinations as reported here, and for international destinations here.
American the “Some Care” airline.
Transcon award costs were low as seen here. In May, American offered low-cost award space to Hawaii and the Caribbean. Research we did back in May 2019, November 2019, December 2019, and even January 2020 showed, at the most, nine days of availability over a year’s time on the Chicago- or New York-London route. Then in April, thanks to lockdowns, we saw 161 days with availability—1,689% more!
United the “More Care” airline.
2019 showed, at the most, four days of discount availability over a year on United’s Newark/New York-London route. In April 2020, our research showed 278 days with availability—6,850% more! Unprecedented Business Class opportunities to London were also available from Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, and for four-plus seats for travel from September to February. In June, on United to Europe for up to four travelers (and often more), we spotted routes that saved up to 190,000 miles, or 61% to Lisbon, London, or Munich.
Looking Forward (in Every Way)
Ok, I’ve just plugged the Crystal Ball into the USB outlet, and here’s what I’m seeing for the next year. Drum roll, please.
2021 Miles & Points Predictions
Go for it. Speculative bookings are relatively risk-free with no change fees, and anyway, booking and planning travel is a great way to boost your happiness.
Point transfers. Credit cards will be giving bonuses for transferring points, so be sure to plan ahead to seize them.
Sale time. Airlines will be offering discounts for buying miles or bonus mileage promotions. Be ready to jump when the opportunity arises as deals will come with the excess capacity, then go as capacity reduces. Don’t be the last to get in on the deals.
Kickstarter. Airlines from low- or no-lockdown countries will be offering creative promotions. The mad dash to get out of dodge will emerge before long.
Domestic award travel. Domestic mileage award costs will remain low for many short-haul routes on American and Delta.
International award travel. Delta will continue to be stingy, but the massive opportunity will still be by booking Delta flights through Virgin with Amex points. American and United will also be Scrooge-like, although United upgrades to South America may remain available. Everywhere else, not so much, the more people look to breakthrough the lockdown.
That said, expect Flash Award Availability to be what marks the year. Airlines won’t figure out how to optimize revenue, but they will try and will be experimenting all the time. Be ready to jump when the deals hit.
Premium Fare Forecast
A permanent new travel order. Airlines are increasing capacity to warm weather destinations and low-fear and low-lockdown destinations such as Florida and the Caribbean. Vaccines will draw travelers on the fence back into the air, and as more countries open up with fewer restrictions with more and more data coming in confirming a survival rate of 99.9%+.
Low fares to many destinations are available now for those with plans set in stone or those planning to travel close in, so buy when the deals are extraordinary. However, if you do buy now and need to make a change, you should only change during a sale to avoid paying an increase in fare. Keep a close eye on FCF Alerts for sales.
Extra discounts are there waiting to be found through programs like the Amex International Airline Program — and could increase as airlines look for under-the-radar ways to discount. Keep an eye out in unexpected places for higher-than-usual discounts in 2021.
Business travel will be slow to return and that means one thing: Business and First Class cabins will be relatively empty, for a while anyway. That means another thing…
Deeply Discounted First Class fares could become more common, if only on an under-the-radar, flash basis, on airlines that traditionally don’t like to discount the front of the plane, like Air France, Lufthansa, SWISS, and Singapore Airlines.
Transcon fares lower than normal will continue as the airlines need to fill premium seats lost to low business-travel demand, so don’t mess with miles; save them for big long-haul First Class adventures. Airlines are going to be stingy with miles anyway, minus flash deals. The formula for when to use miles or cash is here.
The Caribbean. You can grab low fares now to the islands now, many of which are open for business. They’re so low we recommend you use cash not miles to get the best bang for your buck. More on current low Caribbean fares here.
Europe. Routes to destinations with low- or no-lockdown will have higher fares. High-lockdown cities, such as Los Angeles, New York, and London, will see lower fares due to significantly less demand. Airlines will continue to pull and/or reduce flights to cities locked down.
Conclusion
With a virus-survival rate of 99.9%+, things could be a lot worse. As more people realize and appreciate their odds of living through this ‘pandemic,’ deals will dry up. The best opportunities will not last, and you want to seize them before the later travel waves hit. The last to get in will pay the price the airlines really, really want them to, as usual.
Thank You
Happy New Year to all our wonderful readers. Many thanks for sticking with FCF through thick and thin. Don’t forget FCF’s Crisis Help Desk.
Here’s to some great travel adventures in 2021.
See you up front,
Matt Bennett
mr.upgrade@firstclassflyer.com