New Off-Peak Domestic First Class Fares Arrive in U.S.

December 2016
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Time them right to get the lowest ones.

Winter domestic First Class fares are up to 28% less than summer ones were.

[aside headline="Recap of Recent Domestic Fare Alerts" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]

Go here for details on New First Class Domestic Fares Found on American, Delta, and United — 7+ Hour Flights Starting at $414 R/T.

Go here for details on First Class Domestic Fares Found on American, Delta, and United — 7+ Hour Flights Starting at $505 R/T.

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What Impacts Domestic First Class Pricing, Nowadays?

It’s easy to think that oil prices, competition, and mergers determine domestic First Class fares. They play a role, but not as great as they do in determining economy class prices.

Years ago domestic First Class pricing did not change much throughout the year. This changed when airlines started pricing First Class as an upsell from economy fares, which have distinct high and low seasons. Now First Class fares also have peak and off-peak travel seasons because coach fares do, and they are now the basis for the price of First Class. The lowest First Class fares are now starting as low as $85 more than coach one-way on flights of seven or more hours our research shows.

What does this mean?

[aside headline="Delta Reduces Transcon Business Class Fares 21%" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]

Delta’s Los Angeles and San Francisco – New York Business Class fare now goes for $1,097 round-trip (30-day advance purchase required), $300 less than American's and United's (both $1,397).FCF took three recent First Class fare route alerts, each one concerning a major airline, and compared the current winter fare deal to 2016 summer fares. We found that premium fares have dropped by as much as 28%.

American Airlines Example: Take San Francisco-Dallas, which takes about seven-and-a-half hours, round-trip. AA’s current lowest First Class fare is $575 round-trip. That same trip back in June and July cost $668, a drop of $93. A year ago, for reference, it went for $722, and two years ago for $796.

Delta Example: Kansas City-Los Angeles, takes about seven hours non-stop round-trip. Delta’s current lowest First Class fare is $402 round-trip. In June and July that trip cost $510, $108 less. Next March you’re looking at $646.

United Example: Take Chicago-Phoenix, about seven hours round-trip. Delta’s current lowest First Class fare is $484. In June it cost $674, $190 more than the current fare. Next March the trip will cost you $621.

See chart below for more sample fares.[/aside]

Sample of Winter First Class Fares: Starting as Low as $344 on Non-Stop Flights of Seven Hours or More

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Here’s when Domestic First Class Fares are at Their Highest

At Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, Easter, spring break, and during summer: In other words, when familiestravel, airlines often increase First Class fares. Outside of these times look for reduced fares from mid-or-end of October through mid-May. With the lowest fares often coming up for travel in January and February.

[aside headline="Low Premium Fares are the Elite Status Seeker’s Fast Track" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]Use a quick getaway to propel you to your elite status goal—if you’re still locked into a loyalty program. However, I’m very much against this approach, since I believe playing Elite Roulette isn’t worth it, generally speaking. There are better ways to get into Business and First Class, but you already know that.[/aside]

Three takeaways:

  • Always compare economy and First Class for fall and winter travel. The fare you saw a few months ago might not be the one you see this time, and might influence your ticketing strategy.
  • If you plan a trip just to maintain elite status, commonly referred to as a “mileage run,” winter is the time to do it.
  • If you want to take a trip just because it’s a deal, fall and winter is the time to look for it.

If you see a highly discounted published fare, book it, but be sure to check fare restrictions. With published fares, you can cancel the ticket and apply the value, minus the reissue fee ($200), toward a future ticket. Remember that American and United allow you to extend fares for up to seven days. See FCF’s May report for details on how to extend the validity period from just a few hours to up to 14 days.

Why FCF Believes ‘Elite’ Status Doesn’t Pay for Many

Take Kansas City-Los Angeles on Delta, a route on which the lowest First Class fare is $402 round-trip. Delta’s Comfort+—which includes preferred seating and priority boarding—is $272. The First Class fare is only $130 more, which comes out to $65 each way, about $18 per-flight-hour to upgrade—even less, once you figure in the cost for checked-bag and meal service.

Upgrade Cost Comparison on Delta: Kansas City-Los Angeles Round-Trip

[table_opt id="5524" style="gray-header" alignment="thcenter" rows="tdcenter"]

[["First Class Fare (Round-Trip)","Route","Airline"],["$553","Los Angeles - Omaha","American"],["$580","Denver - Nashville","#rowspan#"],["$616","San Diego - Houston","#rowspan#"],["$344","Los Angeles - Dallas","Delta"],["$404","Chicago - Salt Lake City","#rowspan#"],["$524","Atlanta - Las Vegas","#rowspan#"],["$556","Detroit - Seattle","#rowspan#"],["$566","Denver - New York","#rowspan#"],["$566","Minneapolis - San Francisco","#rowspan#"],["$610","Atlanta - Los Angeles","#rowspan#"],["$568","Washington, DC - Denver","United"],["$624","Los Angeles - Chicago","#rowspan#"]]
[["","First Class","Economy (Delta's Main Cabin)"],["Published Fare","$402","$204"],["Fare Difference","$198","#colspan#"],["One Checked Bag R\/T","$0","$50"],["Delta Comfort+ R\/T","$0","$68"],["Meal Cost R\/T","$0","$30"],["Total Cost R\/T","$402","$352"],["Fare Difference","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">$50<\/span>","#colspan#"]]