Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Special Business and First Class Fares to Europe—Under the Microscope

July 2014
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The Five Things You Should Know Before Booking Fares Starting at an Amazingly Low $1,888.

As FCF announced in a June 9 Daily Alert, 2014 Holiday premium fares have landed. FCF’s research team put them under the microscope to come up with five key points to keep in mind when considering booking these fares.

How 2014 Fares Compare with Last Year

It depends on the class of service and the holiday.

Thanksgiving Business Class Fares

Star Alliance: About $300 more than last year and often the alliance that starts seasonal fare promotions.

FCF Recommendation: Unless you find the perfect route on the perfect carrier, wait if you can. Prices are likely to fall. (That said, occasionally we’re off about fare predictions; perhaps 20% of the time.)

2013 vs. 2014 Thanksgiving Business Class Fares to Europe on Star Alliance Carriers

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Oneworld and SkyTeam: The two alliances are pushing to keep everyday Thanksgiving holiday fares higher than in past years. New York-Lisbon fares start at about $2,090 (from the East Coast) and $3,230 (from the West Coast). That’s $200 to $600 more than Star Alliance’s current lowest Business Class fares. FCF Recommendation: Wait if you can.

Our guess is that oneworld and SkyTeam want to see which routes to Europe will be soft before discounting. When these fares come out—FCF refers to them as Flash EasyUp Fares—act fast because they may not last long.

The Trend

The evolving approach to pricing holiday premium fares is very similar to what happened this summer on routes to Europe. Everyday Summer Business Class fares were $2,630 (East Coast) and $3,019 (West Coast), but were as low as $1,413.

Christmas Business Class Fares

Star Alliance: About the same as last year from the East Coast and about $200 less from the West Coast.

FCF Recommendation: Buy now if your plans are firm because fares will most likely remain about the same, and space will fill up.

Oneworld and SkyTeam: Same as for Thanksgiving fares, they are higher this year than in past years.

FCF Recommendation: Wait if you can for oneworld and SkyTeam to match Star Alliance fares.

2013 vs. 2014 Christmas Business Class Fares to Europe on Star Alliance Airlines

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Thanksgiving First Class Fares

About $800 to $1,200 more than last year on United.

FCF Recommendation: Wait if you can, as American has not released its First Class Thanksgiving fares yet and this could drive First Class fares down, at least to where they have been in the past.

2013 vs. 2014 Thanksgiving First Class Fares to Europe on United

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Christmas First Class Fares

These are about same from both coasts as last year (see June 9 alert for ). FCF Recommendation: Buy now if your plans are firm because fares will likely remain the same, unless American comes out with a lower fare. (But the likelihood of that is slim.) Moreover, with fewer airlines offering a First Class cabin, demand will probably outrun supply this year.

2013 vs. 2014 Christmas First Class Fares to Europe on United

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Which Airlines Offer Flat-bed Business Class Seats to Europe?

Almost all of them. In fact, a few have started a second generation roll-out. See chart below for which airlines have the better seat and how much of the fleet now has flat-bed Business Class seats.

Which Airlines Have Flat-bed Business Class Seats for Travel to Europe

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Routes and Airlines Offering Holiday Premium Fares on an A380

Getting the A380 at a discount in Business or First is like getting a two-for-one. See chart below for routes and airlines that offer them.

Routes and Airlines Offering Holiday Premium Fares on an A380

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Net Cost of First Class to Europe Can Be As Low As $2,274

First Class fares are, in fact, even lower when you consider the offset value of miles earned. While United charges $3,252 New York-Brussels, the 18,404 miles earned (even without elite status) have a value of about $677, the cost of buying them from United.

Subtracting the value of the miles earned from the fare yields a net cash cost of $2,575, a savings of 63% versus United’s everyday discounted First Class fare of $7,045. The offset is even higher if you’re an elite, given the bonuses.

International First also gives you access to United’s Global First Class lounges (Business Class does not) at Chicago O’Hare, JFK, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington Dulles in the U.S. and Heathrow in Europe.

Sample Net Cost “Math” for First Class on United Newark-Brussels

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[["<strong>2013<\/strong>","<strong>2014<\/strong>","<strong>Recommendation<\/strong>"],["Started at $1,600 (East Coast) to $2,400 (West Coast) ","Starts at $1,890 (East Coast) to $2,660 (West Coast)","Wait if you can"]]
[["2013","2014","Recommendation"],["Started at $1,890 (East Coast) to $2,860 (West Coast)","Starts at $1,890 (East Coast) to $2,660 (West Coast) ","Buy now"]]
[["2013","2014","Recommendation"],["Started at $2,410 (East Coast) to $3,670 (West Coast)","Starts at $3,250 (East Coast) to $4,930 (West Coast) ","Wait if you can"]]
[["2013","2014","Recommendation"],["Started at $3,250 (East Coast) to $4,946 (West Coast) ","Starts at $3,250 (East Coast) to $4,930 (West Coast)","Buy now"]]
[["0 to 25% Completed","26% to 75% Completed","76% to 99% Completed","100% Completed"],["Air France, American, Scandinavian Airlines<span style=\"color: #6699cc;\">\u00b9<\/span>","Iberia<span style=\"color: #6699cc;\">\u00b2<\/span>, Lufthansa, US Airways","Brittish Airways<span style=\"color: #6699cc;\">\u00b3<\/span>, KLM<span style=\"color: #6699cc;\">\u2074<\/span>","Air Canada<span style=\"color: #6699cc;\">\u2075<\/span>, Air New Zealand, Austrian, Brussels Airline, Delta, SWISS, United, Virgin Atlantic<span style=\"color: #6699cc;\">\u2076<\/span>"]]
<small><em><span style="color: #6699cc;">¹</span>Flat-bed service will be in the beginning of 2015. <span style="color: #6699cc;">²</span>Boston, Chicago, Miami, and New York are equipped with flat-bed seats; from Los Angeles, 50% of flights offer the new seat; 10 of the 17 A340-600 have the new seat; completion is set for end of 2015. <span style="color: #6699cc;">³</span>All 747’s and 777’s have second generation seats. <span style="color: #6699cc;">⁴</span>All B747s will have the new flat-bed seat by July; B777-200 will start getting the new seat in September. <span style="color: #6699cc;">⁵</span>Second generation debuted with lie-flat seats on B787 Dreamliners; B777 gets new seat in 2015. <span style="color: #6699cc;">⁶</span>17 aircraft out of 38 have second generation seats. </em></small>
[["Route","Airline","Business Class Holiday Fare Offered","First Class Holiday Fare Offered"],["Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and Washington, DC - Paris","Air France","Yes","No"],["Los Angeles - London","British Airways","Yes","No"],["Houston, Miami, and San Francisco - Frankfurt","Lufthansa","Yes","No"]]
[["Thanksgiving and Christmas Holiday Fare","Miles Earned <em>without Elite<\/em> Status \/ Off-set Value","Net Cost for Non-Elite","Miles Earned <em>with Silver Status<\/em> \/ Off-set Value","Net Cost for Silver Elite","Miles Earned <em>with Gold Status<\/em> \/ Off-set Value","Net Cost for Gold Elite","Miles Earned <em>with Platinum Status<\/em> \/ Off-set Value","Net Cash Cost for Platinum","Miles Earned <em>with 1K or Global Service<\/em> \/ Off-set Value","Net Cash Cost for 1K or Global Service"],["$3,252 ","18, 404 \/ $677","$2,575 ","20,244 \/ $752","$2,500 ","22,084 \/ $827","$2,425 ","23,924 \/ $903","$2,349 ","25,766 \/ $978","$2,274 "]]