Book Business Class at the Right Time and Get Europe for $700 round-trip, Asia $1,388, and Australia $3,298?

Everyone talks about it. We all hope to get it just right. But all too often it eludes us…I’m talking about the best time to book an airfare. I’ve heard every answer you can imagine, but for the Business Class traveler there’s one that has proven true more than any other: Book over the winter holidays!

I know that sounds nuts. And I’ll say right up front that it’s the antithesis of the timing for economy class travel.

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But here’s why it works: Because business travelers tend to stay home over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. They’re grounded—and happy to be so, I suspect. And when business travelers don’t fly, the Business Class cabin stands a good chance of going empty—the reason it can be had for a song—with airlines dumping seats at prices that can be less than some coach fares.

Yes, less than coach! That’s because airlines price economy class based on restrictions such as advance purchase and stay-over requirement, (usually a Saturday-night), as well as the number of seats left as the departure date nears. For the holidays, economy often sells out or comes down to a few seats being sold at full-fare, which can easily run $2,000 to $3,000 on an international route

So what are the takeaways in all this? Simple. If you’re planning to travel over the holidays anyway and are faced with a high economy fare, ask how much Business Class is. (I promise you, no airline will clue you in when it’s lower.)

And now, here’s my crystal ball for holiday fare pricing this year. It’s based on having watched how these fares played out over the holidays for the past few years. My prediction: History is going to repeat itself.

To Asia Prediction: Look for that $1,388 round-trip Business Class fare—or even lower.

Based on: The fact that last year Northwest started a fare war to Asia, with the majors matching. I think the carrier will do it again. Everyone is adding more flights to Asia in response to demand; but over the holidays there will be too many empty seats not to discount.

Thanksgiving to Europe Prediction: $700 round-trip.

Based on: The fact that last year Continental ignited a fare war to 17 cities in Europe—and this year the carrier has even more seats to move with the addition of several new routes to Europe. I know…this deal sounds way too good to be true—so let’s both keep our fingers crossed!

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Keep an eye out, American AAdvantage members: Soon it might be possible to upgrade a $700 Business Class fare with Cathay Pacific Asia Miles to a First Class ticket that might otherwise go for $12,000 or more. (See FCF May 2005 for more on Asia Miles and how to get them fast and easy).

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Christmas to Europe Prediction: $1,300 round-trip

Based on: Continental, the fare warrior, doing what it did last year. Fares started at $1,300 and were matched by American, Air France, Alitalia, Delta, Iberia, Lufthansa, Northwest/KLM, Swiss, United, and US Airways in many markets. If Business Class hasn’t already sold out at the usual discount price, $1,800 to $2,300, these carriers will have to discount further

December Down Under Prediction: $3,000-$3,500 on United

Based on: United slashing fares last year from almost $9,000 to $3,298 for travel between Dec. 8 and Dec. 31. By December, Air New Zealand will be offering its new Business Class seats on South Pacific routes from Los Angeles and San Francisco. In addition, Qantas’ rollout of new Business Class seats will be coming to completion. So who’s going to pay full-fare for United’s lackluster seats? Look for the airline to be happy to get whatever it can for its Business Class.