You don’t have to live in or travel to Los Angele's, New York, or San Francisco to leverage the opportunities offered to those who connect to them from cities like Monterrey.
Over the last two years, transcon travel has evolved greatly. For years, it was a cozy, high-fare club (American, United, and Delta), and now it is a tooth-and-claw competition, as Jet Blue has entered the lie-flat fray and all four carriers have new seats.The result? A fare spiral staircase going in one direction: Down.
The conclusion seems obvious: Low premium fares trump elite status lures.
Just as we predicted, the three fogeys, American, Delta, and United, have finally caved and matched Jet Blue’s $1,200 Business Class fare.
But at a price: a longer advance booking window to get the best fares. Miss that and fares rise steeply.
The Current Equation
To generate the most revenue from the front cabin, the trans-con carriers have not lowered no-advance-purchase fares by much. But the book in advance and seats are being offered for the lowest price we’ve seen since the four major players rolled out new seats. (Virgin America doesn’t compete much anymore as it has dated, 165-degree reclining seats.)Because the equation seems to change by the month, and much can be learned from history—which can be used to make loyalty program decisions going foward—this special report will do a deep dive on transcon fares, reviewing the changes over the last year, and outlining other ticket strategies that can save up to 69% when booking last minute.
How We Got Here: Review of Last Year
30-Day Advance Evolution:- A year ago only American and Delta offered fares in the $1,700 range—and AA’s fare was only valid for travel on Saturday; now you can travel any day on its lowest fares.
- Fares have dropped about $400 for American and Delta, compared to a year ago.
- United’s fare has dropped about $800 compared to its lowest advance purchase fare a year ago.
- Virgin America’s fare has dropped about $600 compared to its lowest advance purchase fare a year ago. Unlike the three majors, no Saturday-night-stay is required (eliminating a major fare restriction to lure business travelers away from its competitor’s much better seats).
- Jet Blue has been a stalwart, staying at $1,200 (three-day advance purchase) with no minimum stay requirement — a huge plus for the business traveler.
21-Day Advance Evolution:
- A year ago American and United offered fares in the $2,000 range, a big drop from March 2014, when both charged $3,600. Fares now start at about $1,800.
- Delta was the first to step out of its comfort zone in 2014 by offering fares in the $2,200 range, so its current drop is only about $300. Fares now start at about $1,800.
- Virgin America is still a bit on the high side, with fares now starting at about $2,000, about $500 less than a year ago and about $2,000 less than in March 2014.
- Still in flux. American, Delta, and United are at $2,400, a big drop from the $4,400 fare that was standard in March 2014.
- Virgin America’s fares now start at $2,600, a drop of $1,000 from a year ago.
- Roller coaster. In March 2014, the big three charged $4,500 to $4,600, then dropped to about $2,700, and are now at $3,000.
- Virgin America is the odd one out, just recently decreasing its fare from $4,000 to $3,000.
- In March 2014 no carrier offered them. American, Delta, and United came out with the fare in July 2014 at about $3,000. Now the fare is at $3,300, with the exception of JetBlue at $1,200, a real bargain.
- Jet Blue: $1,20
- Runner-up: Virgin America at $1,867 but seat only reclines 165-degrees.
- Aimed at the business traveler. Given the captive audience, it’s interesting that the fare has dropped by up to $1,300 from March 2014. Now, $4,000 to $4,400 on American, Delta, United, and Virgin America. (No-minimum-stay fares are about $400 more.)
- Jet Blue again is the star, offering walk-up fares starting at $1,768 round-trip with no minimum-stay requirement. (An increase of $170 from last July, which signals confidence, if not success.)
Ticketing Strategies That Can Save Up to 69% When Booking Less Than Two Weeks Out or That Require No Minimum-Stay
Jet Blue’s $1,200 can’t be beaten. If you don’t want to fly Jet Blue, and do not have a 30- or 21-day advance notice, and would find a (less than) free side trip a bonus, consider…FCF’s Stopover Loophole Strategy (SLS): Business Class
SLS, a strategy FCF birthed many years ago, presently works with American and is a two-part strategy. You simply take advantage of airline fare rules which allows a free stopover, and then you find a low-fare route that allows a free stopover.
The routes and regions that often allow this free stopover that works together with LAX-JFK from the West Coast are in the Caribbean.
[aside headline="Good Connections" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"] Don’t live in Los Angele's, New York, or San Francisco? You can still take advantage of new seats by using the Transcon route as your connection. For example, if you’re flying Monterrey NYC (or vice versa), connect via SFO or LAX to catch the Trans con, rather than connecting in Phoenix. [/aside]
The SLS advantage is a good option when you’ve missed the 14-day advance purchase on the transcon route, at which point fares start to skyrocket, and you value a free side trip.
West Coast Sample: Los Angeles-Bermuda requires no advance purchase and allows a free stopover in JFK. So you could fly LAX-JFK on AA’s trans-con, stop for a few days more or less, then fly JFK-Bermuda, and vacation for a few days and fly home, for $1,367. (LAX-Aruba is $1,760 with a 3-day advance while AA’s no advance is $4,390, a savings of $3,023 or 69%.)
Package Strategy
It gives you a hotel when stopping over in JFK or LAX.
LAX-JFK Sample: Delta Vacations requires a 7-day advance to book a package and charges $3,012 based on one traveler for a three-night package at the Grand Hyatt, flying Business Class on the trans-con leg with NO Saturday-night stay. If you book the flight and hotel separately, your cost would be $5,154—$3,426 for the ticket and $1,728 for the hotel—savings of $2,142 (42%). Depending on how you look at it, you’re getting the hotel for 
free (plus some) or 61% off your flight.
JFK-LAX Sample: Delta Vacations charges $3,416 based on one traveler for a three-night package at the SLS Beverly Hills Hotel in Business Class with NO Saturday-night stay. If you book the flight and hotel separately, your cost would be $4,846—$3,426 for the ticket and $1,420 for the hotel—savings of $1,430 (30%). You’re getting the hotel for free or 41% off your flight.
How to Beat the Minimum-Stay Requirement
Don’t stay over Saturday night, but use the stay requirement to your advantage: American, Delta, and United require a Saturday-night stay to take advantage of their lowest advance-purchase Business Class fares on the transcon. Here’s the solution for the business traveler who can’t fulfill the requirement: Book the departure and return with a different airline, each of which requires the Saturday night stayover. Let’s assume the itinerary is JFK-LAX-JFK
Outbound: Book one of the above, say United, round-trip, making sure the return date gets you the Saturday stay. Change the return date any time after departure and pay the $200 change fee.
Return: Book this round-trip ticket on another of the above carriers, say American, again making sure that the return date includes the Saturday-night stay.
Now you have one ticket with an unused LAX-JFK segment, and another with an unused JFKLAX segment. You combine them for your next round-trip.
Even though the travel is mid-week, your cost is $2,500—for two tickets—versus $9,000 to $10,000 for an itinerary that doesn’t include a Saturday night. You’ll incur $400 worth of change fees, but so what? Note that this works best for the frequent business traveler who has a good idea of when he can use the other round trip.