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"Won’t fly coach, won’t pay premium"
Many FCF members quietly chant the same mantra. “Won’t fly coach, won’t pay Business/First”. You may be one. If so, international airlines are kind to you, in several ways.
One is their increasing tendency to experiment with fares. How might one airline coax passengers from a competitor’s coach seats? (Coax? Poach, more like it.) Easy, the airline prices its Business Class (or First Class) so low it’s irresistible.
Of course, such experiments go unannounced because other Business Class passengers are paying full freight and would be less than impressed. Unannounced means unnoticed too. Our researchers take pride in catching these fares mid experiment.
Another trend that evidences airlines’ kindness to the won’t-fly-coach-won’t-pay-Business brigade is their ever-more-accurate forecasting of load factors. Routes, even flights, that in times gone by would have enough empty seats to disappoint the airlines — and delight its passengers — no longer escape technoscrutiny.
Those routes or flights are labelled “special treatment” and paraded before the fare police who mark down the identified seats ruthlessly. Again, no big announcement. Just a big catch for those who endlessly trawl the depths of ticketing minutiae.
Anyone can do it.
But only one company does it for premium fliers exclusively, day in and day out, for a living. They are our researchers. What they find we report to members.
U.S. travelers planning a flight to Africa would not have traditionally thought to fly Middle Eastern airlines. But that’s where we are finding First Class fare opportunities. While we’d tend not recommend Emirates Business to members — it’s very ordinary (Etihad’s too) — First Class is superb. Mind you, if a Business Class Emirates (or Etihad) fare surfaces that’s low enough we are prepared to alert you. But we’d rather get you right up front.
And award seats to Africa often surprise when we do our Sweet Redeems surveys. Buy Miles to Fly in Style can therefore be a good strategy when your destination’s Johannesburg, Cape Town or Nairobi.
Then there’s Canada. Not every one wants to fly from Toronto but some members will happily think outside not just the square but the country to fly deluxe for fewer bucks. Africa from Canada in Business can often be little more than Africa from the U.S. in coach as every few months we’re seeing $1,800 to $2,500 fares on Air France and KLM from Canada where fares otherwise typically run five to seven thousand.
Asia’s currently offering upgrade opportunities—upportunities—at both ends of the member spectrum. For those who are happy to fly bargain-basement Business Class or, for a little more, bargain-basement First Class there’s the Delta phenomenon. And for those with ambitions for only the best Business Class experience, but free of the exorbitant fare, there are those superb Asian carriers, like Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific. Combined with the Buy Miles to Fly in Style strategy.
To understand the Delta upportunity understand the Star Alliance domination of the Canadian market. Delta can’t compete on Air Canada’s soil so Delta’s best bet is to get Canadians to fly from Vancouver to L.A. or Toronto to Atlanta with a cute inducement: a crazy good fare to Asia. SkyTeam and Delta folk take note.
The big story for Europe right now is how cheap First Class is. Before that, a few months ago, flash Business Class fares were the go. The most alert-aware members snared fares that made their hearts sing. Some were May Fly fares, not only highly ephemeral but appropriate to the ‘may fly’ strategy.
Business Class is still a story, and it continues below but First Class is the big story thanks in part to American and United and their inferior First Class seats. Only one way to sell them. Slash prices. Sometimes to as close to Business as $100.
And seems they started a chain reaction. BA, Lufthansa, Swiss have reduced their First Class fares — maybe only by half so they are not at parity with American and United — but then again theirs are true First Class seats not second-class First Class.
Nota bene: American, United, Lufthansa, Swiss, BA, Singapore and Emirates are the only carriers offering First Class to Europe. And guess what: only one discounts to its hub. BA.
Back to Business. And back to the old days: remember how you had to buy a ticket 30 days in advance to get the lowest fare? Then, ten or so years ago the 60-day advance fare came out. Next, a couple of years ago, 90 days. And in the last few months: 150 days for the lowest Business Class fare.
Except, for the fare-aware traveler, there’s a 50-day two-people option similar to the 150-day advance fare. And on similar routes so the flexible traveler can avoid the long, long lock-in.
European routes are where we are seeing the airlines honing their load-factor forecasting skills more an any other.
If South America is on your radar be sure to follow FCF's fare alerts. We’ve seen recent fare discounting come and go — to Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. But be sure to understand the unique dynamic of U.S–South America. Only two airlines offer First Class, American and United. Neither service is much to write home about, but well worth an emailed alert when the fare’s so low it represents a near no-cost upgrade from Business.
American started the recent discounting then pulled it. United followed. We expect American to slash its First Class fares again. And United to follow, again. And so on, until United finishes phasing out its First Class.
The trick is to catch these transient deals, because you never want to pay full freight for First Class with these two airlines. How do you justify many thousands of dollars over Business when First Class, its roominess and privacy aside, is only marginally better than the flatbed seats now in Business? (Those seats on American Airlines many like a lot.)
So we’ll only tell you about American and United First Class when we feel the deals on that forsaken space are so good they warrant an alert.
There’s another dimension to the South American dynamic and to our alerts. The second tier carriers Avianca, Aerolíneas Argentinas and TACA; often with very low business class fares they help keep discounting frequent.
Be in the know with exclusive FCF International Fare reports...
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