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If you accumulate lots of points on credit cards, trend insight is important. Unlike elite status travelers, you are not locked in to paying cash for tickets (although sometimes we recommend it because it is often a better value than miles, nowadays).
And if you’re one of the few not wed to a domestic program like American, Delta or United you may well be laughing; or at least smiling.
Just see some of the deals in the right column >
But if you are too connected to the American carriers who ruthlessly devalue and diluted their programs you’d better look fast for a way to get a better return, via an international alliance partner say who has not devalued.
Ideally you’ll have two portfolios: a diversified airline miles portfolio and a credit-card points portfolio.
The airline miles portfolio can be extremely valuable even if it has zero miles. That is, it’s made up simply of latent memberships with many airline award programs across the three alliances which offer miles for sale at the best rates.
Because some require being a member for a month or two before you can purchase miles, FCF suggests having a portfolio of memberships, some latent with zero miles.
And the credit card points portfolio should be made up of MACCs — Multi-Airline Credit Cards.
With these dual portfolios you are set up to transfer points as you need them or to Buy Miles to Fly in Style. And most importantly, you are diversified so you can take advantage of the trends as we report them to you. You haven’t put all your eggs in the one precarious basket. I have always advised diversification. Now, given the trends, it is vital.
For the seasoned First Class airficionado and the aspiring First Class traveler, the exorbitant cost of international First Class travel on so many routes makes paying with points a lucrative move.
You can often save up to 90%, for example, on top carriers with out much difficulty.
Conversely, with international Business Class down so much on many routes, often, simply paying (not much) cash most times makes most sense for many that are flexible.
We constantly monitor published fares so we can report to members according to the HUMLUC principle: High Use Miles, Low Use Cash.
The trends in Availability and Cost are, in turn, exciting and alarming…
Many members will remember when award seats were made available and stayed available until generic allotments we’re used up. Nowadays, we are seeing great availability appear and, long before it can be snapped up, disappear. Just as airlines are experimenting with fares, they are experimenting with award-seat availability.
For the triple AAA traveler — Aware, Adaptable and Alerted — things have never been better. If you are aware that there’s spectacular but sporadic award seat availability and if you are adaptable in your travel planning, the world is your oyster.
Your oyster knife is FCF Sweet Redeems alerts. You are alerted via your inbox or via text, just set your preferences. Select from you bucket list of destinations according to the best miles availability and the best miles/points currency to use with the top seats.
Diversification allows the footloose and fancy free traveler, especially, to make the most of both availability options and currency options. See current trends on Cost.
More good news just in: If what I'm told is true about banks tightening up on the Credit Card Churners, I predict that the next trend might be better availability of the most desirable seats, like Etihad's and Singapore's A380 First Class for example, as churners specifically target those seats like no other.
When you think about there being only 330 days to book Singapore JFK-Frankfurt, and maybe hundreds of thousands of churners, all vying for them, it makes one wonder how any prime seats are ever available. That said, FCF does indeed find them, because of the volatility, and constant monitoring.
The value of your airline miles and credit card points is a combination of what it costs you to get them and what it costs you to use them.
You can control what it costs to get them through your spending decisions and patterns (and by Playing Your Cards Right).
The airlines control what it costs you to use them through whim, or worse.
The big trend to be aware of is the calculated devaluation by U.S. carriers of their award programs. They are effectively handing out cruel pay cuts to all who have worked long and hard to earn their miles.
For those who have all their miles and their only award program membership with an U.S. carrier, booking a seat on an alliance partner probably won’t be easy. Global alliance partners don’t share the same availability. And even should there be availability, seats may well cost several times what the partner is asking its members.
Diversification of award program memberships allows you to spend your miles directly with the airlines that charge the least. This is very important.
If you are locked in with American, say, sure… maybe you can redeem American miles for travel on — say — Cathay Pacific. Sometimes even for less. But portfolio diversification puts sagacity before hope. You almost always have better availability through the currency of the operating carrier. At any given time they may have triple the seats they’ve made available through their partner alliances.
More choice and cheaper are the dual benefits of dual portfolio diversification: airline miles and credit card points — multi-airline credit cards, that is.
Be in the know with exclusive FCF Miles & Points reports
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Ari Fleischer
Press Secretary;
Fleischer Sports CEO
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Tod Cohen
The New York Times
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Prof. Michael Beckerman
Kiplinger's
Chicago Tribune
Newsweek
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