A look back at 2017—and FCF’s prognostications on Business and First Class airfare trends for 2018.
Happy New Year! It’s that time again, when FCF dusts off its trusty crystal ball to give you a taste of what to expect in MMXVIII (that’s 2018 for you non-Romans). Cue the mystical music….
International Business Class
To Europe
Tactical Fares from the U.S. to Europe have leveled off over the last four months. Sadly, we foresee major airlines offering fewer flash tactical fares in the $1,500 to $1,900 range. $1,500 deals will still appear from time to time—but 60- to 90-day advance-purchase fares will continue to be offered at $2,000 to $2,800. The standard price is usually double or even triple that. If you’re flexible and patient, you will be able to score in 2018. Note: To the extent you’re impatient and inflexible, plan on paying more.
Coastal Trends
The gap between East and West Coast fares will continue to shrink on many international routes. Take NY-Frankfurt, for example. On major European airlines, this is currently one of the lowest-fare routes from the East Coast to Europe, starting at $2,199 round-trip. For comparison, Virgin Atlantic charges $2,322 on San Francisco-Manchester, merely a $123 difference. This cost differential used to be $1,500 to $4,000!
Nowadays, an East Coast departure can even cost more than a West Coast departure to the same destination—it’s enough to make you polish your crystal ball with Windex. Take, for example, Seattle-Copenhagen. Currently, the lowest fare ranges from $2,346 to $2,410 depending on the airline, whereas NY-Copenhagen starts at $2,628. Look for more such West Coast deals in 2018. Time to redraw your mental fare map—and embrace the need to abandon much of what you thought about fares as it’s a brave new world.
To Asia
Look for the lowest fare deals to originate in Canada (from $1,990). From the U.S. the best deals will be to Shanghai and Beijing (from $2,150). Otherwise, look for more tactical flash fares from the West Coast, such as Las Vegas to Japan starting at $2,200+ or from the West Coast to Bangkok, Jakarta, and Taipei, starting at $2,200. In 2018, if you can be flexible, consider buying separate tickets to the gateway (such as the West Coast or Canada) and the destination. You’ll save a small fortune and can get a free stopover in the U.S.
To Africa
Last year the best deals—$2,750+—were to Johannesburg and Nairobi—fares that, until recently, easily cost double that. In 2018 we anticipate the trend to get even better out of many U.S. and Canadian gateways and expand to more African cities.
The South Pacific
In general it will still be a high-priced destination year-round, but look for better flash tactical fare promotions than in years past. Otherwise, keep Hawaiian Airlines in mind for fares between $3,600 (West Coat) and $4,000 (East Coast). An inducement: Hawaiian is in the process of rolling out more flat-bed Business Class seats. For a screaming deal, keep an eye on our newsroom for flash availability of mileage seats, as we’ve seen airlines, especially Qantas of late, becoming much more generous and including First Class.
International First Class
Tactical Fare Predictions
To Europe
As everyday Business Class fares inch up, so will those in First Class. That said, we predict that for most of 2018, the Continent will still have the world’s lowest, long-haul First Class fares from the U.S.—as low as $3,500. So, 2018 could see some fare turbulence, although FCF expects that to be offset by airlines experimenting with new ways to sell excess inventory. Rest assured we will spot those trends for you.
To Asia, Africa, Middle East, South America, and South Pacific
First Class fare deals will be hard to get on major airlines, if only because supply isn’t very strong, so these destinations will offer a great return on free and upgraded award travel. Our advice is to buy miles and points at a discount if you don’t already have them. Then use them for deals such as those here to Asia, the Middle East, and South Pacific.
Domestic Fare Predictions
Many premium fares will increase because of aggressive airline segmentation. Apart from some competitive routes (Chicago-New York, for example, where First Class fares still start at about $400 round-trip), continue to look for low Premium fares, as the airlines will still rather sell them cheaply instead of giving them away to elites.
We see domestic Premium Economy becoming the new “upgrade class” from economy. Delta is and will continue to be the leader in the push to get more money per seat with the least change or effort. See our detailed analysis as to the future look of domestic First Class.
What We Think Won’t Change
Lucrative loyalty-currency deals, buy-miles promotions, and credit card point transfer promotions will continue to be plentiful and will likely expand. Concentrate on Alaska, American, LifeMiles (Avianca), and United, which last year consistently offered buying bonuses and discounts; and keep an eye on Amex Rewards for transfer deals to airlines such as British Airways and Virgin Atlantic.
Elite Status: Play The Violins
Nothing to see here, folks. As we’ve been saying for the last decade, elite is e-lite. Elite upgrade hopefuls can forget it, except on short-haul routes or unless you’re top tier. When it comes to elite loyalists, the only winners will be the airlines.
Mileage Award Availability
Pretty much the status quo. Mileage-award availability on the three major U.S. carriers will continue to behave like flash fare sales. (So read FCF to find them!) Premium award space will get tighter because the airlines are getting more creative at selling premium seats, because they prefer cash to mileage redemptions, and because more and more otherwise non-travelers consume these seats through credit card churning.
International airlines will have good award availability as fewer travelers are savvy enough to book them using miles.
Be flexible in 2018. Fly where and when there’s availability on free First Class tickets. Watch FCF award availability calendars under the heading “Sweet Redeems.” They detail the routes with lucrative mileage availability.
Finally, forget destination “lock-in.” Consider grabbing mileage award space to the nearest destination and getting a free connecting flight from there, or even reconsider the destination based on the deal.
FCF’s Recommendations
Stay Alert: Airfares, restrictions, and routes change all the time. Airlines will continue to favor selling seats on certain routes through tactical flash sales rather than giving them away to loyalty program members. Keep an eye on FCF Alerts, and you’ll be light-years ahead of the pack.
If Possible, Avoid Destination Lock-In: Most people I know have more than one destination remaining on their bucket list. Unless money is no object, consider grabbing an amazingly-low open-jaw fare from your nearest gateway to a city close to your bucket-list destination, and buy separate tickets to the gateway or the destination. Or better yet, if it’s a cool destination, spend a day or three in the low-fare city.
Forget About Mileage-Award Lock-In: When Business Class costs little more than coach or when First is ridiculously low, pay cash and save miles for expensive trips to exotic destinations.
Consider Booking Via Canada for Long Hauls: It can be a great deal, when ex-U.S. fares are high. Consider breaking up your trip in Calgary, Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver—three great cities if you haven’t been—perhaps one city outbound and one on the return if you’re into checking things off the list, with bonuses baked in.
Get to Know Lesser-Known Airlines: Look for airlines such as Aer Lingus (oneworld) and Scandinavian (Star Alliance) to offer fare deals to Europe and Hawaiian to do the same to the South Pacific. Added inducement: You can often earn miles in a partner mileage program.