And the implications for loyalty-shackled travelers
The battle for low First Class fares on the big three U.S. airlines reminds me of the big three men’s tennis players because they’re all constantly swapping and competing with each other for top spot.
We’ve never had three players dominate the landscape so effortlessly at the same time (the tennis players, I mean).
Since 2004, here’s how the men’s Number 1 ranked tennis player has changed over time:
Federer-Nadal-Federer-Nadal-Djokovic-Federer-Djokovic-Nadal-Djokovic-Murray-Nadal-Federer-Nadal-Federer-Nadal-Federer-Nadal-Djokovic-Nadal-Djokovic.
Murray is the outlier of course and congratulations to him for somehow squeezing in amongst that trio.
The reason I bring this up is because the big three airlines also chop and change their rankings.
As we reported in November last year, Delta was the low-fare leader. In our previous report, American and United were lower than Delta. Just like tennis rankings, their positions change all the time.
We’re avid tennis fans AND fare watchers here at FCF, both domestically and internationally. As soon as we see a significant change, we report on it.
Which brings us to an unlikely doubles pairing that is smashing their competitor.
Back in November, Delta was the champion domestic First Class fare leader, offering up to 52% lower fares than United and 31% lower than American.
But now, American joins Delta in offering lower fares than United. We don’t believe this is Covid-19 related. Instead, we think it’s just the ongoing bounce of the ball.
Let’s check the video on this latest rally. We’ll look at routes where non-stops are offered so it’s as close to an apples to apples comparison as possible.
Sample savings with AA and Delta over United, based on non-stop routes all three airlines fly:
New York to/from Chicago First Class on AA and Delta is $305 round-trip. United, on the other hand, charges $535, a difference of $230/43%.
New York to/from Orlando First Class on AA is $405 and Delta is $445 round-trip. Meanwhile, United charges $625, a difference of up to $220/35%.
Chicago to/from Atlanta First Class on both AA and Delta is $425 round-trip. United charges $651, a difference of $226/35%.
Chicago to/from Boston First Class on AA and Delta is $325 round-trip. On United it’s $575, a difference of $250/43%.
Chicago to/from Seattle First Class on AA and Delta is $555 round-trip. United charges $857, a difference of $302/35%.
Game. Set. Match.
The Game Changes When You’re an “Elite”
At times, we are even seeing AA undercutting Delta in Delta’s own major hub cities, such as Atlanta. An example is the New York-Atlanta First Class fare on AA is available for $329, while Delta is $525 round-trip, and United, $535. It’s a difference of up to $206/38%, and in this case AA is the price leader. That’s the cost of being an elite-focused traveler who’s tied to a single airline.
Or take United. Chicago is a major United hub, and for New York to Chicago, you’re paying for it dearly, as United charges 43% ($535) more than AA and Delta. And here’s another way to look at it: You can pay $305 on AA and Delta and fly First Class, which is only $54 one-way more than what United charges for economy ($197).
Ah, the elites… Also in this May issue, we talk about why I could care less about being an elite, even at this time when airlines are offering many elites bonuses.
For more on the hidden cost of being an elite, check out these two recent reports:
Hub Capped? Don’t Fall for the Allure of Elite (It’ll Cost You Much More)
It’s Not Too Late to Excommunicate Yourself from ‘the Elite Class’
Airlines know you want their elite cards. They also know that a lot of people seem to value them more than a significantly discounted fare. But it’s the elites themselves who end up bearing that extra cost
The lesson? It’s much better to be a loyalty-free traveler who isn’t shackled to one elite program. That way you’ll give yourself the flexibility to shop around. Right now, AA and Delta have the lowest fares, but that can change at any time. Who knows, next month or next week, United may have the lowest fares.
In any case, not being focused on elite status means you can ace the best deal on any airline, at any time. When you don’t tie yourself down to one elite program you’ll have so many more schedule options to choose from. And that’s a guaranteed win for you.