And how to surf the ever-changing Upgrade-Opportunity Waves
All indications lead me to think that 2016 will be a great year for the strategic premium traveler, particularly those who understand Flash EasyUp fares and the new fare rules.
Loyalty-free agents will be the big winners, as always, while economy-class travelers, elite-status travelers, and those married to one carrier will be losers.
Lucrative loyalty-currency deals—buy-miles promotions and credit card pointtransfer promotions—will be plentiful. American is picking up not far from where US Airways left off; United is offering 50% to 100% bonuses; Alaska has been consistent at about 40%; and LifeMiles at 100% to 125% bonuses.
International Business Class EasyUp Fare Predictions
The lowest ($1,200 to $1,500) sales will occur less often but… other incredible fares ($1,900 to $2,400 / 40%+ off) will become common on many routes
For the patient and prepared-to-pounce, the frequency of flash deals doesn’t really matter. Phoenix-Barcelona might have a Flash EasyUp fare one day, but New York-Barcelona will not—or vice versa—as airlines are increasingly determined to take off with every seat occupied and are getting better and better at pricing predicted-to-be-unsold seats. Flash EasyUp fares in the $1,200 to $1,500 range will get rarer, but 2-to-8 Rates—fares geared to couples and groups—will be more common.
How to Work EasyUp Fares
- Stay Alert: Airfares change all the time, both prices and restrictions. Airlines will continue to experiment in 2016 to see what works in selling Business Class seats for cash rather than giving them away to loyalty program members. Keep an eye on FCF Alert emails and newsroom posts and you’ll be light-years ahead of the pack.
- Knowing how to Extend the “Ticketing Deadline” Is Often Key: The best fares don’t last long, often a few days or hours—so being ready to pull the trigger can make all the difference between booking a $1,700 fare versus a $3,700 one. That might mean holding multiple reservations and then deciding which one to take, unless you’ve done enough planning that you’re ready to book. See “Look. Lock! Book?” in FCF’s October report.
- Forget Destination Lock-In: Most people I know have more than one destination remaining on their bucket list. Unless money is no object, consider grabbing an amazingly low fare to a bucket-list destination and buying separate tickets to the gateway, and/or a separate ticket to the destination. I’m suggesting booking a ticket to Madrid even if going to Milan’s La Scala is your goal, if a great fare or sweet redeem turns up. (FCF’s newsroom highlights many unusually low and hidden fares and sweet mileage redeems every week.)
- Forget About Mileage-Award Lock-In: When Business Class is little more than coach or when First is ridiculously low, pay cash and save miles for expensive trips. E) When All Else Fails, Consider Departing from Canada: It can offer a good deal, as evidenced by these recent fare promotion from Canada to the South Pacific and Africa.
International First Class EasyUp Fare Predictions
Upsales and fare disparities will proliferate
First Class seats have been declared expendable by American and United for the long term, meaning they will be offered for little more than Business on many more routes than ever before.
Europe: In 2016 more airlines will slash premium fares. Lufthansa has already started doing this on some routes to Madrid and Paris (see Jan. 2 alert for details). Air France is also getting into the game, albeit slowly, as it cannot sustain a $10,000 First Class fare on many routes. In 2015 British Airways had to rethink its pricing for its First Class to compete with American’s—so keep London in mind for every day low First Class ticket prices. Remember, anyone can get another $400 off by using the AARP discount.
Asia and South America: Look for promotional First Class discounts on American and United. They won’t be as plentiful as those to Europe, but they will last longer (a few days or weeks) than Flash EasyUp fares.
How to Work EasyUp First Class Fare Trends: The same way you do Business Class.
Domestic Premium Travel Predictions
Published fares
First Class fares will continue to stay low because airlines want to sell seats, not give them away to loyal elites. Coach fares will not fall; in fact, the various fees have increased so much that the difference between coach and First is at an all time low. With lower First Class fares come more seats sold in advance, leaving fewer freebies for elites.
Elite upgrade roulette
Except on short-haul routes or if you’re a top-tier elite, this game will be on its final descent. Why? Delta and United no longer allow elite upgrades on premium transcon flights, where they mattered most. Better to buy an advance-purchase First Class ticket at a deep discount. Remember, the extra fees that come with coach fares and the pain will be less. If you do the math, you’ll see that the price of First Class is often close to a free upgrade. See FCF’s Aug. and July reports for more.
Loyalty Program & Alliance Predictions
Mileage award availability will behave more and more like fare sales
Premium award space is going to get tighter because the airlines are getting more creative at selling premium seats and because they prefer cash to mileage redemptions. That said, an abundance of award seats will surface, intermittently, just like fare sales, so the prize goes to the attentive.
[aside headline="2015 Recap" alignment="alignright" width="half" headline_size="default"]
First Class:
2015 will be remembered most for the amazingly low, First Class deals to Asia, Europe, and South America. American, British Airways, and United reinvented the First Class pricing structure by slashing one-way upgrades from Business Class to $125 on many routes. On some routes, they even offered upgrades to First Class for free. Talk about EasyUp fares! (See Dec. 10, Dec. 11, Dec. 14, Dec. 15, and Dec. 17 alerts for more details, and also FCF’sNovember, October, September, and August reports.
Business Class:
Most major airlines introduced two new fare structures to Europe, giving leisure travelers more options to nail low premium fares. For more details see FCF’sNovember and August reports.
Business Class fares to Asia and Europe fell to the low-$2,000s and from Canada, to $1,782 with increasing frequency. Speaking of Canada, it’s the new hot-departure point to Africa: Published fares from Vancouver and Toronto to Nairobi, Johannesburg, and Cape Town fell to $2,100.
Flash EasyUp Business Class fares to Europe started as low as $1,216 and southern South America as low as $1,645—but didn’t last long.
Domestic Premium Travel:
Transcon Business Class fares on American, Delta, and United fell to match JetBlue’s $1,200 fare, and AA offered paid upgrades to First Class for only $2 more on these routes. Delta came out with a six-tier upgrade scheme for domestic First Class (upgrades starting at $39 one-way), and fares to Hawaii from the West Coast dropped as low as $798.[/aside]
Alliances will fray
They already have started, now that the only real competition is among the partners. That means members of a given alliance will try to discourage travel on their partners; another way of reducing your loyalty benefits.
On New York-Seoul, for example, Korean, a Delta partner, charges $4,148 round-trip for Business Class. If you book with Korean, you only receive 100% base miles with Delta, and no elite qualification miles, no elite dollars, and no elite bonus. Book it through Delta as a code-share flight and you receive more base miles, elite qualification miles, elite dollars, and elite bonuses, since the earnings are based on dollar amount spend. However, the fare rises to $17,327 (400+%). Expect more of this
How to Work Loyalty Travel Fare Trends
- Increase Your Flexibility When Using Miles: Meaning, fly when and where there is availability. Most people find a deal on a cruise, resort, or tour and only then consider flights. Bad idea, unless money is no object. If you really want to score the best seats for less using miles, plan two or three destinations and/or two or three time-frames to find where the values match up. Then book.
- Watch FCF Award Availability Calendars: These “Treasure Maps” appear as articles in FCF reports and in our newsroom as “Sweet Redeems” detailing the routes with lucrative mileage availability.
- Leverage One-Way Awards: It’s another aspect of being flexible. Book a different airline for each leg; always search “one-way” first.
Final Thoughts
Airlines have much better technology now than even just a few years ago, which will accelerate changes in airfares, loyalty programs, elite programs, and the fine print. What worked for the premium traveler last year or last month may not going forward. Don’t get set in your upgrade ways. Be optimistic and opportunistic: When one upgrade door closes, another usually opens.