Pass or Fail? A Look at 2021 Summer Business Class Fares to Europe, What’s Trending Now, and the World Health Organization’s Flipped Advice

November 2020
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This special report examines the current fare trends and recommendations based on your budget and level of flexibility.

Free, lockdown-friendly mileage awards are getting harder and harder to find, which means published fares are what we turn our attention to for now.

Of the 19 Delta routes for which we previously found award availability, for example, we now find zero, zip, zilch. Of the five American Airlines routes, only one now has availability (alert here).

The one bright spot is that out of the previous 22 options available on United, we find 16 that still have award space.

With that in mind, let’s see what the published fare landscape is like. But before we get into that, let’s check out a breakthrough lockdown-related announcement.

A Lockdown Tipping Point?

On October 9, the World Health Organization’s Special Envoy on Covid-19, David Navarro said, “We at the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus.”

The WHO’s argument is that long-term lockdowns have a dangerous effect: “lockdowns just have one consequence… making poor people an awful lot poorer.”

A Reminder on the Odds of Dying (and Living)

SO, What does a Good Fare to Europe look like?

So, given that palpable desire to hop across the pond, combined with lockdown second thoughts, what is a good fare to Europe? Should you buy now or hold off until things open up more? We’ve put together a school-style grading system for fares to help you make the call.

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This grading system will help you to decide whether to buy or wait it out. If you find exactly what you want in terms of airline, origin, destination, schedule, departure date, and return date, and your fare is sub-$2,500, we think it’s not a bad idea to book now.

$1,500 Fare Too Far? Almost.

There are no $1,500 premium tactical fares today to Europe on major U.S. airlines. Those are generally on a “flash” basis. If you want to land a $1,500ish fare to Europe you’ll need to be flexible. So keep a close eye on FCF alerts for the best sub-$2,000 fares.

On the other hand, TAP Air Portugal (a Star Alliance partner) has been intermittently offering fares starting at $1,382, for example, from Chicago to Bilbao and $1,485 from Boston to Berlin, as well as low tacticle fares on many other routes. If you’re okay with TAP and you’re a United loyalist, these fares are well worth considering – especially if your budget is sub-$2,000 and you can’t find any availability with your miles or points.

We’re happy to give an “A” to any fare that comes very close to matching your preferred dates, route, schedule, and airline for under $2,000. Here’s a handful of candidates:

  • Star Alliance: New York to Barcelona for $1,894 and Madrid, $1,997; Chicago to Majorca, $1,954, Naples, $1,983, and Seville and Bilbao, $1,855; Miami to Barcelona, $1,999.
  • Oneworld: New York to Barcelona and Milan, $1,901; Rome, $1,911, Genoa and Turin, $1,990; Chicago to Bilbao, $1,862, Seville, $1,884, Ibiza and Minorca $1,970; Miami to Rome, $1,923.
  • SkyTeam? Sorry, none. No prizes from the teacher.

Examples of fares that are between $2,001 and $2,500, but still match your ideal itinerary, or come pretty close, we score a “B.”

  • Star Alliance: New York to Bordeaux, Lisbon, Malaga, Frankfurt, Milan, Faro, Kyiv, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Genoa, Turin, Rome; Boston to Milan, Venice, Rome, Barcelona, Madrid, Lisbon; Miami to Rome, Milan, Porto; Chicago to Lisbon, Madrid, Rome, Venice, Barcelona, Riga.
  • oneworld: New York to Madrid, Lisbon, Porto, Faro, Malaga, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Malta; Los Angeles to Moscow, St. Petersburg; San Francisco to Madrid; Boston to Catania, Palermo, Naples, Valencia, Lisbon, Milan, Rome, Porto, Bilbao; Chicago to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Valencia, Venice, Barcelona, Madrid, Lisbon, Porto; Miami to Malta, Milan, Barcelona, Porto; Philadelphia to Nice.
  • SkyTeam: New York to Milan and Rome.

Samples of routes with fares between $2,500 and $3,000 and get a “C”…

  • Star Alliance: Los Angeles to Prague, Zagreb, Kyiv, Rome, Barcelona, Lisbon, Vienna, Athens, Stockholm, Milan, Copenhagen, Dublin, Dubrovnik, Zurich, Moscow, Porto, Split, Warsaw, Oslo; Washington, DC, to Madrid, London, Paris, Rome, Amsterdam, Berlin, Vienna, Lisbon, Stockholm, Munich, Dublin, Zurich, Frankfurt, Porto, Nice; New York to Vienna, Dublin, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Venice, Prague, Florence, Munich, Dubrovnik, Seville, Zurich, Mykonos, Naples, Helsinki, Split, Warsaw, Zagreb; Miami to Malaga, Paris, Amsterdam, Lisbon, Venice, Berlin, Prague, Florence, Athens, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Dubrovnik, Dublin, Porto, Naples, Nice, Split, Helsinki, Warsaw; Houston to Amsterdam. Berlin, Vienna, Lisbon, Stockholm, Munich, Dublin, Zurich, Porto, Nice; Chicago to Paris, Amsterdam, Berlin, Vienna, Munich, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Dublin, Dubrovnik, Zurich, Frankfurt, Moscow, Krakow, Nice, Split, Helsinki, Warsaw, Zagreb, Oslo.
  • oneworld: New York to Venice, Nice, Majorca, Seville, Dublin, Helsinki, Athens, Vienna, London, Prague, Munich, Warsaw, Split, Zagreb, Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, Hamburg; Boston to Zurich, Berlin, Amsterdam, Prague, Vienna, Athens, Oslo, Munich, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Dublin, Dubrovnik, Seville, Nice, Helsinki; Miami to Valencia, London, Paris, Lisbon, Prague, Florence, Athens, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Dubrovnik, Dublin, Seville, Moscow, Naples, Nice, Helsinki, Zagreb; Raleigh to Milan, Paris, Rome, Barcelona, Venice, Prague, Vienna, Florence, Lisbon, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Madrid, Munich, Dublin, Zurich, Porto, Naples, Frankfurt, Helsinki, Oslo; Chicago to London, Paris, Amsterdam. Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Munich, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Dublin, Dubrovnik, Frankfurt, Nice, Split, Helsinki, Warsaw, Zagreb, Oslo; Los Angeles to Rome, Barcelona, Prague, Vienna, Lisbon, Santorini, Athens, Stockholm, Milan, Copenhagen, Dublin, Dubrovnik, Seville, Zurich, Mykonos, Porto, Split, Zagreb, Warsaw, Oslo.
  • SkyTeam: New York to Dublin, Cork, Nice, Kyiv, Moscow, Vienna, Warsaw, Athens, London, Oslo, Helsinki, Lisbon, Barcelona, Split, Zagreb, Prague, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Seville, St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Kyiv, Vienna; Boston to Venice, Milan, Naples, Florence, Rome, Madrid, Malaga, Paris, Athens, Barcelona, Dublin, London, Madrid, Seville, Oslo, Helsinki, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Prague, Zagreb, Zurich; Miami to Madrid, Oslo, Helsinki, Stockholm, Moscow, Dublin, Barcelona, Athens, Rome, Paris, Geneva, Nice, Berlin; Chicago to Milan, Naples, Florence, Pisa, Rome, Madrid, Malaga, Paris, Barcelona, Dublin, London, Seville, Oslo, Helsinki, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Prague, Zagreb, Zurich, Valencia, Geneva, Vienna, Warsaw, Amsterdam; Orlando to Milan, Dublin, Rome, Barcelona, Lisbon, Madrid, Paris, Venice, Rome; Los Angeles to Oslo,Stockholm, Copenhagen, Warsaw, Moscow, Dublin, Vienna, Split, Rome, Barcelona, Dublin, Lisbon, Milan, Naples, Florence, Malaga, Valencia, Athens; Atlanta to Milan, Amsterdam, Barcelona, Malaga, Madrid, Rome, Naples, Florence, Pisa.

Examples of routes with fares right now above $3,000, scoring a “D.” These are last-ditch options that we only recommend if you’re really uneasy about not having a ticket in your hand and have really firm requirement.

  • Star Alliance: Washington, DC, to Barcelona, Venice, Prague, Florence, Athens, Edinburgh, Milan, Dubrovnik, Seville, Naples, Moscow, Split, Zagreb, Bordeaux, Warsaw; New York to Edinburgh, Copenhagen; Chicago to London, St. Petersburg; Miami to London, Vienna, Edinburgh, Munich, Mykonos, Zurich, Moscow, Frankfurt, Zagreb, Bordeaux; Los Angeles to London, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Berlin, Venice, Santorini, Florence, Edinburgh, Munich, Seville, Frankfurt, Naples, Krakow, Helsinki.
  • Oneworld: New York to Berlin, Santorini, Edinburgh, Copenhagen, Zurich, Frankfurt, Mykonos, Krakow; Chicago to Zurich, Krakow; Miami to Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Munich, Zurich, Frankfurt, Split, Warsaw, Bordeaux; Los Angeles to London, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Berlin, Venice, Florence, Edinburgh, Munich, Frankfurt, Naples, Krakow; Boston to Edinburgh, Santorini, Mykonos, Moscow, Krakow, Split, Warsaw, Bordeaux.
  • SkyTeam: Atlanta to London, Paris, Venice, Berlin, Prague, Athens, Lisbon, Dublin, Munich, Seville, Zurich, Porto, Frankfurt, Nice, Split, Warsaw, Majorca, Valencia; New York to Berlin, Edinburgh, Munich, Copenhagen, Krakow; Chicago to London, Berlin, Venice, Edinburgh, Munich, St. Petersburg, Krakow; Miami to London, Amsterdam, Venice, Prague, Milan, Zurich, Frankfurt, Naples, St. Petersburg; Los Angeles to London, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Venice, Edinburgh, Munich, Seville, Zurich, Frankfurt, Helsinki, St. Petersburg; Boston to Berlin, Vienna, Munich, Frankfurt, Moscow, Bordeaux.

Fares above $3,500 get an “F.” In general, we don’t think these are worth it. But if you’re dying to have a ticket in your hand and you have really tight airline/date requirements, then one of these could work for you if you’re not very price-sensitive. Some examples:

  • Star Alliance: Washington, DC, to Santorini, Krakow; New York to Santorini; Chicago to Athens, Santorini, Edinburgh; Miami to Seville, Krakow; Los Angeles to Mykonos, Nice.
  • Oneworld: Chicago to Athens, Santorini, Edinburgh, Mykonos; Miami to Vienna.
  • SkyTeam: Atlanta to Vienna, Moscow, Krakow, Zagreb, Bordeaux, Edinburgh; Chicago to Athens, Frankfurt; Miami to Munich, Warsaw, Bordeaux; Los Angeles to Nice, Krakow; Boston to Edinburgh, Krakow, St. Petersburg.

NOT SCORING?
CONSIDER THESE STRATEGIES

What Are Fare Trends Right Now?

The theme of the moment is constant change, so expect fares to vary by the time you read this. Treat this report as a framework, rather than a strict highlight of particular fares. For example, this is what we found on fares surveyed in the last few weeks of putting together this report (it’s been a wild ride):

  • SkyTeam offers no fares under $2,000.
  • The lowest fares to London are in the $2,500-$3,000 range on United from New York and Washington, DC; on American from Chicago, Miami, and New York; and on Delta from Boston, Chicago, and New York. Meanwhile, fares on Delta are the highest at $3,000+ departing from Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami.
  • No fares to Edinburgh for less than $3,000 on any airline.
  • The best fares under $2,000 are New York to Bordeaux, Faro, Genoa, Kyiv, Naples, St. Petersburg, Turin, Valencia, Venice; Philadelphia to Nice; and Boston to Catania and Palermo.
  • American is the only airline offering fares under $3,000 to Santorini and Majorca. Two alliances, meanwhile, offer similar prices: SkyTeam to Geneva and Pisa, and Star to Krakow.
  • SkyTeam offers the highest fares to Frankfurt from the most U.S. cities.
  • Most fares fall into the “C” range at the moment.
  • Italy and Spain have the overall lowest fares on United from Chicago and New York.
  • Some of Delta’s highest fares are to Germany, London, Poland, Russia, and Scotland.
  • Some of American’s highest fares are to Germany, Poland, and Russia.
  • Some of United’s highest fares are to Scotland, Greece, and Germany.

What Are the Risks If You Want to Change Your Mind?

Most airlines are currently offering “travel fee waivers” even for award flights. That means it won’t cost you anything to cancel or change your ticket for international travel for the remainder of 2020.

Get Revenge, But Don’t Be Silly About It

FCF says the best time to book flights is when the price is low. We know “revenge travel” is going to be a big thing next year, so be careful not to let your itchy feet walk into a bad deal.

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