Ignore the glass-half-empty headlines about First Class award travel to Asia
I’m seeing a lot of negative reports about First Class air travel right now that contradict some of what we’ve found in our own research. And then it hit me: a lot of reporting focuses on trips with more than one traveler. Single travelers, or unaccompanied majors(!), are a different kettle of fish, and their First Class story is a lot brighter.
RETAIL Pricing
Airlines are pretty good at filling seats. They’ve been doing it for a long time now, and these days, big technology and data analytics help them score even more revenue. Fair enough, we’re all trying to make a buck.
In the Asian market, U.S. airlines American, Delta, and United have aggressive pricing departments that are completely unpredictable. Meanwhile, Asian airlines have a more steady hand. Month in and month out, we see general themes or trends that are more reliable. So while you’re reading this special report, know that what you see on an Asian airline this month, will likely be similar next month. But this is less so for the U.S. airlines.
In a perfect airline world (not a perfect passenger world), every flight would be full, with every passenger paying full freight to get from A to B. But that’s not what happens. The guy next to you, the brunette in 4A, the little old man in 12D, and we are all paying different prices for the same product: getting from A to B. You probably realize that retail reality. But do you know the wholesale story?
Wholesale Pricing
The airlines can never know for sure how many seats are going to sell at full price or not, so they hedge their bets by releasing wholesale mileage award tickets. It means they don’t get full compensation for those seats because they either gave you the miles that you earned by flying, or you paid 1.3 to 3.5 cents for them, or they’re giving the seats away to partners, probably at around one cent per mile. All this means those seats are going for a lot less than the advertised international First Class prices, which are sometimes up around the $20K to $30K mark.
So, on flights that the predictor-bots say will not be full in First Class, the airlines release mileage award availability. BUT, it’s generally only one seat at a time, which means they benefit solo flyers. They don’t want to give away their prime real estate too easily, so again, they hedge their bets.
Important things to note:
1. If you hear people talking about high airfares, the level of ease or difficulty in upgrading, free award seat availability, or difficulty finding free award seats in one particular class of service, you must consider that there are two types of travelers: solo travelers and non-solo travelers. This report is made for you SOLO travelers because YOLO (You Only Live Once) and FOMO (you don’t want the Fear of Missing Out).
- In our research (which you’ll see below), we demonstrate the odds of what does and doesn’t apply to solo travelers.
[aside headline="" alignment="aligncenter" width="big" headline_size="default"]Like flying solo? What if you were the only passenger on an 8-hour flight?[/aside]
When Are You Most Likely to Score Discount First Class Seats?
When are the airlines most likely to release seats they think will go unsold? The closer to departure the better their forecasting abilities, so some airlines don't have a problem releasing First Class seats that will almost definitely not get sold. That’s why close-in is a great time to score mileage award seats at the deepest discounted levels.
Two or three months before departure, depending on the destination and route, is when the airlines will be unsure of how many seats are going to get sold. So they keep their First Class seats close to their chest, releasing few if any.
The second most lucrative time to find discount First Class free award seats in general, and to Asia in particular, is when airlines post schedules and start selling seats – this typically happens from 11 to 12 months out. On routes where airlines historically haven't sold out, they'll release one or sometimes two knowing they're not going to sell all of them at retail pricing. So the second time solo travelers can score big is when airlines release seats 330 to 360 days in advance because they have high confidence that they're not going to sell out entirely.
By three to five months before departure, the airlines have already leaked out some wholesale seats, have run some sale fares, have played with pricing, and are fine tuning their approach to filling those departing flights.
Airlines With a First Class Cabin and How They’re Trending for Solo Travelers
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So the general rule is: the best time to find award seats is close-in, which could still be within six or eight weeks of departure to Asia; and far-out, which means it could be between 330 and 360 days. This varies by airline. Use the table below as a guide for when to start booking far in advance of travel.
Days in Advance You Can Book
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Solo Travelers Score 860% More Dates with ACCESS TO Wholesale Pricing
FCF research shows the number of days with one seat versus two seats for your top First Class seats to Asia.
First Class Trends for Solo Travelers – By Route
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Solo Travelers and Bridge Routes
Here at FCF we talk about bridge routes all the time. It's the long-haul flight that connects one continent to the other. This is the leg of the trip that matters most because it’s the time you’re in the plane the longest. Ideally you’d connect at your home continent so that when your long-haul bridge route flight lands, you're at your final destination. But if you live in Kansas City, you could connect to Asia, for example, because there are no nonstops from Kansas City. So you would fly Kansas City to Chicago or Dallas or Los Angeles or even San Francisco to get to your final destination in Asia. You want to be bridge route-minded with long-haul flight opportunities, in this case between the U.S. and Asia.
For example, on All Nippon we found only one route with First Class free award seats for solo travelers from Chicago to Tokyo for travel on several dates in August 2022 and June 2023, and a handful of seats in both directions in May 2023 and return in February. You only need one long-haul route with free award seats if you have to make a connection. So in this case, there are all kinds of dates with availability between the U.S. and Tokyo, through Chicago.
With Japan Airlines, we found First Class free award seats for solo travelers from Chicago to Tokyo for travel on several dates in June 2023, both directions from Los Angeles, a handful of seats end of July 2022 and June 2023 for solo travelers and a handful of seats for two people end of July 2022, both directions; from New York, a handful of seats end of July 2022 and June 2023 for solo travelers and a handful of seats for up to four people end of July 2022 on the return; from San Francisco, several dates with seats in June 2023 for one person and a handful of seats for up to four people end of July 2022, in both directions.
We checked Singapore Airlines but they only had close-in outbound flights from San Francisco to Tokyo, and nothing on their return in First Class.
Cathay is not showing any First Class seats at the present time.
First Class Routes with Seats for Solos
Given Asia is slowly regaining flights to/from the U.S., it’s best to book now before Asia gets hot again. Here are the airlines and routes we found with free First Class award seats, when to find them, and how to get the miles if you don’t have any.
All Nippon is a points transfer partner with Amex, Virgin Atlantic, United, and Air Canada.
- For bookings within 331 days, use partner Virgin Atlantic – a transfer partner with Amex, Chase, and Citi.
- All Nippon, a Star Alliance partner, gives you access to awards using your United miles or you can buy them at 1.8 cents when on sale.
- Use Air Canada miles or transfer to Air Canada from Amex, Capital One, and Chase or you can buy them as low as 1.3 cents each when on sale.
All Nippon First Class Opportunities For Solo Travelers
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Japan Airlines partners with American, Cathay, and British Airways
- Japan Airlines, a oneworld partner, gives you access to awards using your American miles or you can buy them at 1.8 cents when on sale.
- Cathay Pacific is a transfer partner of Amex, Capital One, and Citi
- British Airways is a transfer partner of Amex, Capital One, and Chase
Japan Airlines First Class Opportunities For Solo Travelers
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Singapore Airlines is a transfer partner with Amex, Capital One, Chase, and Citi.
Singapore Airlines First Class Opportunities For Solo Travelers
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What to do if…
You only find seats in one direction.
You don’t see your origin or destination in the headlines or charts above?