Plus, how and why to leverage one-way award tickets on American and Emirates.
Upgrading Never Sleeps
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that it’s never too late to upgrade. Time and time again, this is made clear with a last-minute upgrade touchdown. So a golden rule of travel is never give up, especially when you’re approaching your flight’s departure time and you’re holding a ticket for a seat that will make you miserable–because of the comfort or what it cost.
Thinking with a one-way mindset, as opposed to a default round-trip mindset, can help you upgrade your trip. It opens up the opportunity to make last-minute upgrades if or as they arise.
Think of your departure, for instance. If you’re going on a vacation, why not start off on the right foot in First Class? A close-in upgrade can make it happen.
Similarly, an upgraded return flight can be the icing on the cake. It brings you home refreshed and with great memories of the trip you had! Again, First Class is just the ticket.
To that end, we continue with our goal of continually iterating to improve, or what the Japanese call kaizen. Below, we show you how to leverage this strategy with one-way tickets to dial up your kaizen hit rate, and we look at the current award availability trends that our research team have been busy uncovering.
Leveraging Two Separate One-Way Award Tickets
The strategy is simple and it works wherever you’re going (I can’t remember the last time I booked a round-trip.) Just divide your itinerary in two and search for the best deal on each leg. One-way tickets increase your chances of getting a First Class seat or a seat at a lower award-cost level. See below for some one-way ticket scenarios.
Smart Plays With One-Ways
Upgrade Your Departure
If you booked two one-way Premium Economy or Business Class tickets months in advance, spend three minutes a day to check flights as you get close to your departure date for available seats in a higher class of service–or the same ones going for a lower price!
If cheap First Class seats open up but only for your outbound flight, you can grab it like a free donut. And your other one-way ticket isn’t compromised.
Maybe you splurged on a one-way Business Class seat at a high mileage cost on your outbound flight because, hey it’s better than coach, and you got a one-way First Class seat at the Saver rate for your return. Check flights daily for available close-in First and Business Class seats at a lower cost than you originally paid for that high-priced seat — that’s a nice trip upgrade.
Upgrade From Your Destination
Cabin value: Get smart about the value of your cabin choices. For example, First Class was only available at the Saver rate outbound, and rather than paying the high cost of an unrestricted award in First on the return, get a separate ticket to fly Business Class. This gives you an opportunity to upgrade later, even when you’re already at your destination because the best First Class seats can become available close in at lower pricing than ever.
Set aside a few minutes to check flights daily for available close-in First Class seats, or have your personal assistant or kids do that lifting for you.
Be Flexible
Finding a First Class seat close in might mean you need to be flexible. Maybe you’d stay in Tokyo an extra day. In that case, head down to Fuji on a day trip or check out the famous fish markets (the sushi there is next level). Every city has that “if only I had one more day” factor.
FCF’S Close-in First Class Award
Availability Trend Survey
Our team recently studied First Class availability within eight days of departure for one to four seats. While these trends often change, be sure to check in advance to see how things are trending.
Let’s start with routes that are trending with round-trip availability.
Round-Trip Trend #1:
To/From Sydney and Los Angeles on American
with American Miles
See below for the frequency (%) of days with low-cost First Class awards available close in we have recently seen.
[table_opt id="6837" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="narrow" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]
Round-Trip Trend #2:
To/From Sao Paulo and Miami on American
with American Miles
See below for the frequency (%) of days with low-cost First Class awards available close in we have recently seen.
[table_opt id="6838" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="narrow" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]
Round-Trip Trend #3:
To/From London and Dallas on American
with American Miles
See below for the frequency (%) of days with low-cost First Class awards available close in we have recently seen.
[table_opt id="6839" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="narrow" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]
Round-Trip Trend #4:
To/From New York and Milan with Emirates Miles
On occasion we see one seat on both the outbound and return; try EK’s waitlist strategy.
Round-Trip Trend #5:
To/From Newark and Athens with Emirates Miles
We are frequently seeing at least one seat in both directions; again try EK’s waitlist strategy.
Round-Trip Trend #6:
To/From Abu Dhabi and Washington, DC, on Etihad
|with American Miles
Etihad’s Washington, DC-Abu Dhabi route is showing First Class award seats within 30 days of departure on the outbound leg with up to two seats close in. You can find up to two seats on the return leg from October to June at time of research. This route is unusually ever changing.
One-Way ONLY Routes
(routes with availability either from or to the U.S.)
One-Way Trend #1:
From London to Los Angeles on American
with American Miles
See below for the frequency (%) of days with low-cost First Class awards available close in we have recently seen.
[table_opt id="6840" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="narrow" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]
One-Way Trend #2:
From London to New York on American
with American Miles
See below for the frequency (%) of days with low-cost First Class awards available close in we have recently seen.
[table_opt id="6841" style="gray-header" header_rows="1" width="narrow" alignment="thcenter" heading="thcenter" rows="tdcenter" responsive="no" /]
One-Way Trend #3:
From New York to Frankfurt
with Singapore Miles
We found one and two seat availability outbound on one of the eight days we checked. Nothing found on the return flight.
Routes With No First Class Award Space for spontaneous travelers or relentless upgraders – Zip, Zero, Virtually Zilch. In other words, save your time don’t bother thinking or dreaming about it for now.
All Nippon Flights–Using All Nippon Miles: All Nippon does not offer award space for departures within 96 hours. Between five and 15 days from departure, there were no award seats found in either direction to/from Chicago, New York, and San Francisco (operates through October 28, 2023) to Tokyo.
American Flights–Using American Airline Miles: We did not find American seats outbound from Los Angeles and New York to London; Miami to London, both directions; Miami to Buenos Aires (operates October 28, 2023 to March 30, 2024); New York to Delhi, both directions; and New York to Doha, both directions.
Cathay Pacific Flights Using Cathay Miles: We found no seats in either direction on their Los Angeles- or San Francisco-Hong Kong routes.
Japan Airlines Flights Using American Airline Miles: We have NOT recently seen seats on any of Japan’s four First Class routes. Although we are looking for this to change back to historically reliable last-minute availability.
Qantas Flights Using American Airlines Miles: From Los Angeles to Sydney, we found no seats on the outbound flight, and just one on the return flight on one day.
Singapore Flights Using Singapore Airlines Miles: On the Los Angeles-Tokyo route, we found no seats in either direction.
Follow the trends we’re seeing above, and I’ll see you in First Class.