Hot Ticket: First Class Flyer’s Crystal Ball for 2010

Despite the turbulent times, good opportunities are on the horizon

I pride myself on thinking independently about air travel, so in this issue I’m making a prediction that you won’t read in the mass media: For the premium traveler, the skies are going to be friendlier in 2010. Here’s my explanation, plus 11 other predictions for 2010, which is looking to be a pretty good year.

1. First Class will still be First Class.
   Airlines are moving ahead with premium-seat investments, the bad economy notwithstanding. United is continuing to roll out new First Class seats on its B777 fleet. Among other new First Class introductions are British Airways’ upgraded First Class cabin (scheduled for early this year), Cathay’s private suites, and Korean’s Kosmo Suites. That’s a change from previous recessions, which means that when we could come out of this funk, premium air travel will be better than it was in the boom years, as hard as that may be to believe. Other international airlines that have already upgraded their premium cabins are putting money into lounges and the in-flight experience, from molding Tempur-Pedic mattresses (Japan Airlines) to seven-course dinners (Lufthansa).
2. Business Class seat comfort will escalate, while coach will deteriorate.
   Continental and United are rolling out a new flat-bed on their B777s; US Airways is doing the same on its A330-200 from Philadelphia to London; Delta is putting a new flat-bed seat on B767s (currently available to London); and American has just completed installation of new seats on 18 B757s, which are offered on European routes. Same goes for international carriers: By early 2010, all British Airways aircraft will have new Business Class seats, and SWISS will offer a new cabin on its A330-300.
3. More airlines will offer Premium Economy.
   2009 saw more airlines launch Premium Economy cabins than ever before. Virgin even enlarged its cabin. 2010 will be another strong year, with more U.S. carriers getting in on the trend.
4. For the next six months or so, Europe will continue to see great short-notice premium fares for the business traveler. Then those fares will go up.
   In January 2009, a last-minute, non-stop Business Class ticket from New York to London started at about $4,000 on American, Continental, and Delta. Today that ticket costs about $2,200. As the economy picks up (assuming it does), and more business travelers hit the skies again, short-notice fares will rise, perhaps as early as fall 2010. The moral of the story: Come summer, lock in your travel plans if you can.
5. Advance-purchase fares for leisure travelers will remain the same to Europe, (contrary to what everyone else is saying).
   Most leisure travelers are able to book well ahead, allowing them to take advantage of 50-day advance promo fares, which have remained stable over the last two years. A 50-day advance ticket from NYC to London in January 2008 and 2009 was about $2,200; this January it’s still the same.
6. If you fantasize about the South Pacific, this is your year.
   In the beginning of 2009, 50-day advance fares from Los Angeles to Sydney started at about $8,000. Today that same ticket costs about $4,200. The reason: Two new airlines started service just as the economy turned south, forcing fares down. Look for new and even lower fare promotions in 2010. We’ve also seen better availability of mileage seats recently; expect opportunities in 2010 there, too.
7. Upgrades for bottom-tier elites will become an endangered species.
   Due to mergers and more code-share flights, there are fewer premium seats to go around. Your New Year’s resolution: Get top-tier status as quickly as possible. Use your airline affinity credit card, buy elite status, or buy it back. Keep an eye out for elite promotions at the beginning of the year: With travel still slow, airlines are fighting over their best customers, and elite promos will be offered on soft or newer routes. Work the program to move up in status.
8. Domestic fares will (continue to) go up.
   Due to mergers and code-share agreements, the same carriers are competing on fewer routes and offering fewer seats. But if you’re going to fly First Class, you’re going to fly First Class (and not leave comfort up to elite upgrade roulette)—and the airlines know it.
9. Elite status will be more critical than ever, but for different reasons than in years past.
   Elite status will help members avoid baggage fees and preferred seating fees, rather than being a resource for upgrades—which will be as hit-or-miss as ever.
10. 2010 will offer a bounty of mileage-earning promotions.
    With many airlines having gone as low as they can on fares, there are only two other carrots: Mileage-earning promotions and credit-card mileage bonuses for first-time users (such as BA’s current offer). Don’t think this won’t happen again, as short-term Wall Street recognition demands mortgaging the future.
11. Fee creativity will not slow down.
    Airlines have learned that the public will swallow their profiting on fees, so look for more of them in 2010 for the average traveler (top-level elites will be exempt from many). Airlines will get more creative, sometimes for the better.
12. Mileage-redemption rates will go up.
    With airlines giving miles away faster and easier through promotions and credit cards, look for more redemption-level hikes, especially in the “anytime” award category. Combine more and easier mileage earning opportunities with higher rates, and playing the game just right will have its advantages.

Rest assured, there will still be many opportunities to see the world—in some degree of comfort—at much less than list price.