First Class Flyer
Anyone Can Upgrade
The Transcon Descends: Many Business Class Fares Have Dropped 60%

The Transcon Descends: Many Business Class Fares Have Dropped 60%

Hot Ticket | Print

Share:

Proof positive why airline loyalty doesn’t pay, plus why these flights matter for many not even flying to/from SFO, LAX, or NYC.

Good Connections

Don’t live in Los Angeles, New York, or San Francisco? You can still take advantage of new transcon seats by using the route as your connection. For example, if you’re flying Monterey-NYC (or vice versa), connect via SFO or LAX to catch the transcon (rather than connecting in Phoenix) for a big upgrade.

For years the Transcon was a cozy, high-fare club (American, Delta, and United). Now, it is a tooth-and-claw competition, courtesy of JetBlue, and with every carrier touting its new lie-flat seats.

The result: A fare spiral in one direction: down.

Just as FCF predicted, the three major airlines, American, Delta, and United, have finally caved and reduced high-priced ($4,000+) walk-up fares (meaning no advance purchase required) by as much as $1,500 (35%).

We also see major changes in American’s and United’s advance-purchase requirement, formerly 30 days, but now seven, with a fare reduction of up to $1,800 (60%).

Below is a deep dive on what fares and restrictions each airline now offers on its Transcon route.

American’s Fare Evolution

  • Last month AA came out with a special 7-day advance purchase fare of $1,196 round-trip from SFO to JFK, matching JetBlue’s advance-purchase window (no minimum stay required).
  • Walk-up fares also dropped on the SFO-JFK and LAX-JFK route from as much as $4,390 round-trip to $2,834 (requires a Saturday-night stay, otherwise about $400 more), a difference of $1,556.
  • LAX-JFK 30-day advance purchase fares have not changed ($1,228, Saturday night stay required; otherwise about $200 more), but 21-day advance purchase fares have dropped from the $1,850 to the $1,450 range (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $600 more).
  • LAX-JFK 14-day advance-purchase fares fell from $2,450 to $2,050 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $500 more).
  • LAX-JFK seven-day advance-purchase fares dropped from $3,000 to $2,500, a $500 drop (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $300 more). Three-day advance purchase fares are extinct.

United’s Fare Evolution

  • United followed (as is usually the case) AA by reducing its 30-day advance purchase window for the lowest fare to seven days, then went one better by offering the fare from both LAX and SFO to New York (Newark). United’s seven-day advance-purchase transcon fare has fallen from about $3,000 in January to $1,226, a drop of about $1,800 (no minimum stay required).
  • United’s round-trip, walk-up fares on SFO-Newark and LAX-Newark have dropped from $4,390 to $2,834 with a Saturday-night stay requirement (otherwise about $400 more), a difference of $1,556.

Delta’s Fare Evolution

  • Used to being the front runner, it is now running behind, having not changed its lowest 30-day advance purchase fares or its advance purchase window ($1,228, Saturday night stay required; otherwise about $200 more).
  • Delta dropped its walk-up fare on SFO-JFK and LAXJFK from $4,038 round-trip last June to $2,834 this month (Saturday-night stay required, otherwise about $400 more), a difference of $1,204, the same as AA and United.
  • Matching AA, Delta’s 21-day advance purchase fare from LAX and SFO has dropped from about $1,850 to $1,450 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $600 more), a 20% drop.
  • Delta’s 14-day advance-purchase fares fell from about $2,450 to $2,050 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $500 more), a $400 drop.
  • LAX/SFO-JFK seven-day advance-purchase are now around $2,500 (Saturday-night stay required; otherwise about $300 more), a $500 drop.

JetBlue’s Fare Evolution

  • A general fare increase of about $50, but still offers the lowest walk-up fare starting at $1,948, $900 less than the three majors (no minimum stay required on premium fares).

Virgin American’s Fare Evolution

  • No change, despite inferior seat. Pricing itself out of the transcon market.

What’s next?

We think that Delta will match AA and United in reducing its advance-purchase requirement for the lowest fare from 30 to 7 days. More fare reductions are coming on higher priced tickets on American and Delta on the LAXJFK route. Plus, walk-up fares on the major three will likely see another drop. Also, look for JetBlue to start imposing more fare restrictions and minor fare increases, too. The result: the huge fare difference between the major three and Jetblue will disappear

Transcon Fare Spiral: Los Angeles – New York

AirlinesCurrent 30-Day AdvancePrevious 30-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent 21-Day AdvancePrevious 21-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent 14-Day AdvancePrevious 14-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent 7-Day AdvancePrevious 7-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent No Advance*Previous No AdvanceDifferenceEffective Date
American$1,228 $1,224 Fare about the same$1,428 $1,848 $420$2,028 $2,428 $400$2,528 $3,026 $498$2,835 $4,390 $1,555 Feb. 5
Delta$1,228 $1,228 $1,428 $1,848 $420$2,028 $2,448 $420$2,538 $3,048 $510$2,838 $4,048 $1,210 Feb. 8
JetBlue$1,196 $1,196 $1,346 $1,296 ($50)$1,346 $1,296 ($50)$1,346 $1,296 ($50)$1,946 $1,896 ($50)Minor change over the last 4 months
United**$1,226 $1,222 $1,226 $1,868 $642$1,226 $2,468 $1,242 $1,226 $3,068 $1,842 $2,838 $4,068 $1,230 Jan. 21 for seven-day advance-purchase, Feb. 12 for walk-up.
Virgin AmericaNot offered$2,035 $2,035 Same$2,435 $2,435 Same$2,435 $2,435 Same$4,035 $3,996 ($39)No change.
*Walk-up fare requires a Saturday-night stay, otherwise $400 more. **New 7-day advance-purchase fare does not require a minimum stay. Newark flight, not JFK.

Transcon Fare Spiral: San Francisco – New York

AirlinesCurrent 30-Day AdvancePrevious 30-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent 21-Day AdvancePrevious 21-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent 14-Day AdvancePrevious 14-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent 7-Day AdvancePrevious 7-Day AdvanceDifferenceCurrent No Advance*Previous No AdvanceDifferenceEffective Date
American$1,196 $1,199 Fare about the same$1,196 $1,845 $649$1,196 $2,445 $1,249 $1,196 $3,045 $1,850 $2,835 $4,045 $1,210 Jan. 19 for 7-day advance-purchase, Feb. 5 for walk-up.
Delta$1,196 $1,228 $1,196 $1,848 $652$2,028 $2,448 $420$2,538 $3,048 $510$2,838 $4,048 $1,210 Feb. 8
JetBlue$1,196 $1,198 $1,196 $1,198 Same$1,196 $1,198 Same$1,196 $1,198 Same$1,706 $1,656 ($50)Minor changes over the last 4 months
United**$1,231 $1,227 $1,231 $1,873 $642$1,231 $2,473 $1,242 $1,231 $3,073 $1,842 $2,838 $4,073 $1,235 Jan. 21 for 7-day advance-purchase, Feb. 12 for walk-up.
Virgin America$1,943 $2,043 $100$2,490 $2,490 Same$2,490 $2,490 Same$2,490 $2,490 Same$4,043 $4,043 SameNo change.
*Walk-up fare requires a Saturday-night stay, otherwise $400 more. **New 7-day advance-purchase fare does not require a minimum stay. Newark flight, not JFK.